The modern working regime has quite a few rules that we need to understand and follow. With the fast paced environment all around us, the regular working day has become more dynamic and productivity oriented. If you look just several years back, being productive meant how many calls you can make during a day. Well that changed and for the better. Being productive still implicits this fact, but it also implies sending emails, attending meetings, writing reports, updating social media and much more. It is not enough to be just productive, as you need to be a master multitasker in general. And that’s not an easy thing to accomplish.
The thing is — not everyone can be efficient. People tend to give 100% but still do not have satisfactory results. All of us can get lost in responsibilities, often struggling to finish even the smallest tasks. The day became so hectic that it feels like a roller-coaster ride sometimes. And yes, people are getting used to this, but we always seem to be lacking in time.
To master the art of scheduling the daily work and saving precious hours, we must resort to various useful tools that can be found online. While there are tons of tools that are not good enough and can be actually labeled as time-wasting, there is a significant number of those that are actually really helpful. We went looking for the MVPs of online productivity and found these 5 sturdy tools that can help you be more productive at work:
What is TeuxDeux? A simple to-do app is what they say, but it is much more than that. TeuxDeux combines graphic elements with user-friendly interface making it a productivity savior. You just set your to-do schedule and if you don’t manage to finish everything, your to-dos will be transferred to the next day. Among the rest, you can download all your to-dos at any time with a click of a button. If you fancy pen and paper, but like making to-do lists, you will love TeuxDeux.
A special bookmark place is needed for this productivity tool. With PDF OCR, you can convert scanned PDF documents to completely editable Word files. All that paper laying around your office can be scanned and converted in no time. The tool allows you to easily save and edit all your important papers with no limitations to the file size. Having the integrated advanced OCR technology, everything is 100% accurate. Just try it and we guarantee you’ll love it.
Simply put, Rapportive is showing everything you need to know about your LinkedIn contacts right inside your mail. It is a free Chrome extension that allows you to get LinkedIn profiles embedded inside your inbox. Pretty neat and time-saving, don’t you think? You can see your contact’s job, profile picture, company profile, and much more. Maybe this is not the most useful tool in the world, but it can be used in making your daily work way more productive.
We all understand the importance of backing up our personal files, right? One of the biggest fears of the 21st century is realizing your hard drive has crashed and you’ve lost all you data in a matter of seconds. That is why it has become a necessity to backup your files. And here comes Mozy to take care of it all. It is an online backup service where all your files are safely stored in an online environment. More than 6 million users cannot be wrong and is the terms go, better safe than sorry.
We’ve all been in a situation where we had to motivate ourselves to get productive and stop wasting time. And can you remember what usually happens after you try that strategy? Within minutes, you are doing the exact opposite — checking your Twitter, Facebook and watching YouTube videos realizing that you haven’t done any work. StayFocusd, as the name says, helps you stay focused on important work-related things. It increases your productivity by not allowing you to spend huge amount of hours on those time-wasting websites. Just block sites that are distracting you and you are good to go.
These are just some of the tools that can increase your productivity and help you in your daily work. And remember, being productive is not the same as thinking that you are. When you realize this, you are one step ahead. Just keep on walking.
Adapts to change, capitalizes on trends, and creates a dynamic team through collaboration 4 and flexibility. Stakeholders review the project LL.at each stage so teams can make the right adjustments, creating high-quality products „ that meet customer need.
XP? CCPM? PRISM? If you’re new to Project Management. the number of different • methodologies (and acronyms( can be mind-boggling.
We’ve broken 16 common project management methodologies into bite-sized pieces to help you choose the best approach for your next project.
ADAPTIVE PROJECT FRAMEWORK (APF)
Improves the project at every stage by learning from the previous stage’s results. By defining project goals and regularly reviewing project scope, managers can deliver the highest possible business value for the customer.
ma go. •• qb
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• . . . ’91FFITS REALIFP.T.
Defines success as achieving a desired benefit. If clients want to increase sales by 15% and hire you to develop new CRM software, the project isn’t complete until sales are up 15% – even if you deliver the desired CRM on time and within budget.
CRITICAL CHAIN PROJECT MANAGEMENT (CCPM)
Avoids project delays by identifying a “critical hain” of tasks, reserving resources for those tasks. Since schedules are built around resource availability the project timeline may be longer, but there’s less chance of missing important deadlines.
l’IRITICAt PATH METHOD (CP!:
Determines your project’s shortest timeline so you can adjust to shifting deadlines. By identifying the project’s most essential tasks, you can estimate completion dates, dependencies, milestones, and deliverables. And compare what should be happening with what is happening every day.
EVENT CHAIN MFTWOriM OPY OM)
Helps recognize and plan for potential risks. Monte Carlo Analysis and Event Chain Diagrams help determine the probability of certain risks and their potential impact. Visualizing the relationship between external events and project tasks helps create realistic plans.
EXTREME PROGRAMMING (XP)
Features short development cycles, frequent releases, and open communication with stakeholders. Teams focus on collaboration and efficiency, writing the simplest possible code to produce the desired feature, avoiding burnout and low-quality deliverables.
KANBAN
Produces a slow and steady stream of deliverables through continuous workflow. Managers often use a whiteboard or sticky notes to represent progress and uncover process problems. By understanding where time is wasted, teams can improve productivity.
TO DO
IN PROGRESS
DONE
•
•
a
Delivers high-value, high-quality work with less manpower, money, and time. Lean cuts waste by eliminating bottlenecks, focusing on customer value, and continually improving processes. Use Lean to cut budgets, meet quick deadlines, and get big results with a small team.
Ir—
PRINCE2 (PROJECTS IN CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENTS)
Ensures that every project has business justification and will contribute value. Planning begins by identifying a clear need, targeted customer, realistic benefits, and accurate cost assessment.
LEAN SIX SIGMA
Comb-nes Lean’s efficiency with Six Sigma’s statistics-based process improvement. By defining how work actually gets done, teams eliminate waste and focus on delivering the highest possible value to clients.
PRISM (PROJECTS INTEGRATING SUSTAINABLE METHODS)
Blends project planning with environmental sustainability measures. Want to go green? PRiSM is for you. Reduce energy, waste management, and distribution costs, all while reducing your environmental footprint
PROCESS-BASED PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Guarantees every project furthers the company’s mission. Before project kick-off, the plan is analyzed to see if it will live up to the mission statement; if not, all strategies and goals are adjusted. Every action adds value to an organization’s strategic vision.
A
Emphasizes productivity, focus and collaboration so teams can build high-quality deliverables quickly and adapt to change easily. Teams work in short sprints for maximum efficiency, plus they can test new iterations quickly and fix mistakes right away.
Improves processes and product quality by reducing defects or bugs. A rating of “six sigma” means that 99.99966% of what’s produced is defect-free. By examining the entire production process, you can find possible improvements even before defects appear.
WATERFALL
Breaks projects down into a series of sequential tasks. With clearly defined goals and a set timeline, teams work through tasks in order, completing each one before moving on to the next in line. And extensive planning means accurate timelines and budgets.
Learn more at
WRIKE.COM
Curious about the pros and cons of each approach? Go to
http://bit.ly/PMmethods
Brought to youby Werie
Award-winning project management and collaboration software
SOURCES: about.com, brighthubpm.com, intaver.com, my-project-management-expert.com, pmkb.com, projectmanagement.com, projectsmart.co.uk, sixsigmaonline.com, tutorialspoint.com, wikipedia.org
Tending to a few potted flowers is one thing, but managing an entire garden of vegetables is a big to-do.
Thanks to warmer temperatures, extended sunlight hours, and a general ease to the daily grind, the summer season is often the ideal time for venturing into the world of gardening.
When deciding to turn your backyard into a veritable food factory, it is important to have a few fast facts about farming. You don’t necessarily need to have a green thumb to produce a thriving vegetable garden, but a little bit of researching and strategizing can make the difference between bloom and bust.
Placement Is Key.
Before choosing which vegetables you want to plant, you need to think about where you are planting them. Regardless of climate, it is best to find a space sequestered from any shrubbery or buildings, a space that gets direct sunlight with minimal shade. In this setting, you will have maximum control over the conditions of your garden, allowing you to tweak things such as heat, shade, and irrigation to suit whatever you plant.
Once you have chosen such a location, the next step is to create the perfect conditions for growing vegetables. It is more than just ripping out sod. Actually, most farmers recommend building raised beds for your vegetable gardens.
Traditional raised beds are no more than 4 feet above the ground and contain rows of crops that should be planted in succession to increase their total yields throughout the year. (Planting in succession is defined as rotating crops in your garden to increase its fertility.) Below the raised bed, farmers usually put a base of cardboard that prevents any underground weeds from burrowing through your topsoil.
Play to the Region.
You know your climate best. If, for instance, you live in the Northeast then direct sunlight is a must. Shade is otherwise needed for intensely hot climates that could burn or shrivel up plants.
Another handy recommendation is to use what is around you to build your raised beds. Have a rocky backyard? Take some of those rocks to frame the bed for an aesthetically pleasing garden.
Choosing Soil Depends on the Plants.
However, soil is one factor that does not depend on location, but what you put in it. Most farmers recommend a 50/50 compost mix to enrich soil. Good soil is abundant in organic matter as well as agricultural lime, rock phosphate, and greensand. You can provide your soil an additional boost by scattering it with used coffee grounds, eggshells, banana peels, and shredded leaves.
Fun fact: a sprinkling of baking soda on soil helps grow sweeter tomatoes.
Do Fence It In.
Unless you live in a detention center with mile-high walls, you probably have critters that occasionally cross through your backyard. They are the number one threat to your burgeoning vegetable garden. After identifying what kind of animals you have in your backyard, it is time to plan a defense.
Unless faced with bears and deer, you can usually go with a lower chicken wire fence anywhere from 3 to 4 feet high. The fence should be soft on the top to prevent animals from climbing up it. Likewise, the fence should have an underground apron component to prevent animals from digging into the garden from underneath.
One of the best recommendations for building the fence is to build a solid one. That way the animals don’t know what they are missing.
Special precautions should be taken if you intend on planting sugary berry fruits like blueberries and raspberries. Because birds are attracted to these fruits, they can swoop down and eat them. For prevention’s sake, cover the plants with extra chicken wire or an extremely sheer fabric to allow sunlight in without the pesky beaks of hungry birds.
Now for the Best Part: Choosing What to Plant.
Finally, once you have planned and plotted out your summer vegetable garden, it is time to plant. Timing is of the essence: it is important to plant your crops as soon as possible once into the summer season.
Actually, the best time to start planting is after the threat of frost bite disappears. For most regions of the United States, that occurs between April and May while the first frost bite usually occurs between September and October.
Here are a few of the most popular options for summer vegetables:
Tomatoes
Squash
Zucchini
Corn
Cucumbers
Eggplant
Okra
Peppers
Melons
What’s the Best?
Of these 9 choices (and all their varieties) tomatoes are the frontrunner for producing the best results. The most important trick here is to wait until night temperatures stay above 50 degrees to plant them—they are very temperamental and will otherwise freeze to death. Other than that, they are pretty tolerant plants.
If you love a small challenge from an unsuspecting vegetable, try okra! The veggie loves hot weather, and its seeds are sown directly into the ground.
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2960S3S
When the U.K. voted to leave the European Union last week, and global markets began to go into free-fall mode, one question on people’s minds was: how long will this last? Well, after a couple days of worrisome stock declines, there are finally some signs that investors have begun to settle down.
In the U.S., stock futures have gained back a modest amount of their massive losses, as investors start to dip their toes into risky waters once again. No one knows how the Brexit will affect the European trading bloc as we’re sort of swimming in the dark here, so the only hope investors have is to hope they get lucky with their estimated guesses. At the time of this writing, the DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 are all trading in the positive.
Across the pond, the British pound, which had gotten battered down to a 31-year low yesterday, was up 0.8% against the dollar and 0.12% against the Euro. Does this mean that a Brecovery is in the works? Unlikely. Today’s gains seem to be due to investors profiting from bets that the pound would decline.
With David Cameron saying yesterday that it will be the job of the next Prime Minister to orchestrate the details of Britain leaving the European Union, the markets are forced to wait even longer to understand the full repercussions the deal. With no clear leading candidate for Cameron’s successor, analysts are dealing with a variety of politicians and their implications for Brexit negotiations.
As one market analyst put it, we are in “a period of exceptional uncertainty.” Only time will tell what comes of all of this.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen was scheduled to participate in a debate on Wednesday with Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, but that event has now been canceled. Apparently, the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who was also set to appear in the debate, has more important things to attend to in Brussels.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is currently trading at a staggering 1.47%. That’s less than 10 basis points above the all-time low of 1.39%. Yesterday, it dropped as low as 1.43%. It’s hard to truly comprehend just how strange that is. Mortgage rates have a tendency to follow in the footsteps of the 10-year yield, so the low yield likely means low rates.
Fed Fund futures paint a fuzzy picture
For the majority of the year, it seemed as though there would at least be one rate hike in 2016. After the Brexit, any prior plans went out the window. We’re left with Fed Fund futures that don’t show any remote chance of a rate hike until December, but even then it’s only a 17.3% chance.
That’s not good. What’s worse is that there’s a 7.6% chance that rates will be lowered by 25 basis points. No doubt, the Fed Fund futures can be volatile, and there’s no telling what levels they will adjust to, but a rate hike seems miles and miles away at the moment.
Mortgage rates are incredibly low, and it’s a great time to get a mortgage or refinance. There’s really not much else to say. How long will they stay like this? That’s anyone’s guess. My advice: lock in a low rate while you can.
The third and final first-quarter estimate from the Commerce Department is showing that GDP rose by 1.1%. That’s a hair above the consensus for 1.0%. That’s not bad considering that personal consumption was the worst in two years.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
The 20-City index jumped up 5.4% from the previous April. Home prices in some cities are even moving higher than levels reached pre-Great Recession. Hopefully, these prices aren’t artificially inflated.
Consumer Confidence spikes
Consumer confidence came in at a 98.0 for June. That’s a decent amount higher than the consensus of 93.3, and is the best reading of the year.
Miscellanea:
As if the British weren’t dealing with enough as is, their national soccer team suffered a humiliating defeat to Iceland yesterday, resulting in a swift Brexit from the 2016 Euro Cup. I guess when it rains it pours…
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The pistol squat is a unilateral movement and requires more balance than a regular two-legged squat.
Benefit #2: Increase mobility
Training for the pistol squat is going to help you increase your lower body mobility.
This is going to have a positive effect in every lower body movements you are performing.
Benefit #3: Build resilient legs
Performing a pistol squat requires that you go into extreme ranges of motion and sometimes you are going to get slightly out of alignment.
As a result, training with pistol squats is going to help you build more resilient legs.
This is one of the main reasons you will have to be careful with the progressions too.
Benefit #4: Training everywhere
Like most calisthenics exercises, the pistol squat is a movement that you can perform everywhere without the need for equipment.
So, if you need to travel and don’t have access to weights, you can easily train with pistol squats.
Pistol Squat Prerequisites
As stated previously, in performing pistol squats you are going to move out of alignment. As such, you shouldn’t train for the pistol squats without having the necessary foundations.
Here, you are going to find what the basics are and how to master them so that you can train for the pistol squat.
So, let’s start.
Prerequisite #1: Bodyweight squat
The bodyweight squat is the most basic leg exercise.
If you can’t perform a perfect bodyweight squat, you shouldn’t consider training for the pistol just yet.
Your first priority would be to be able to squat full depth with perfect form for at least 40 reps.
The bodyweight squat is an easy move. It doesn’t require much strength to be done, so don’t worry if you can’t perform many reps.
Most people who can’t do bodyweight squats, is because they lack mobility and not because of the lack of strength.
Here are some exercises that can help you increase your mobility for the bodyweight squat, in case you can’t achieve full range of motion:
If you lack the necessary strength to perform a full bodyweight squat, then you can work with assisted and partial reps until you are able to perform one. Then you should focus on building your reps.
You are going to find a beginner’s training plan later in this post.
Preesequire #2: Bottom Iso Hold
After you are able to perform 5 or more reps of full bodyweight squats, you should start training the bottom position of the pistol squat.
To perform the exercise, squat down with both legs, move the weight in one of them and slowly extend the other one. Stay in that position for 5-10 seconds.
In the beginning, you’ll likely not be able to perform the exercise without assistance. If you can’t, you can use as assistance the floor, the wall or a table.
Make sure to train both sides equally.
This exercise is going to help you develop the necessary mobility for the full pistol squat.
The goal is to be able to hold the bottom position for 15 seconds unassisted.
Pistol Squat Progressions & Helpful Exercises
In this section, you are going to find the different progressions that you can use to achieve the pistol squat.
You are also going to find some helpful exercises that you can add to your training plan to achieve the movement faster.
Pistol Squat Exercise #1: Partial Reps
In this exercise, you are going to need an elevated surface to practice on.
As the name suggests, you are going to perform only a part of the pistol squat by going down until you sit on the elevated surface.
You should start with a surface that is a little higher than knee height and gradually work your way until full range of motion.
This is one of the easiest progressions to use for achieving the pistol squat because you can easily make the exercise harder or easier and to measure your progress.
Your aim should be to achieve 5 reps of 5 sets in a given height before advancing to a lower one. As the height decreases, if 5×5 becomes difficult, you can use as a standard 3×5 and then 3×3.
For safety purposes, you shouldn’t decrease the height by two much, 1-2 inches are usually enough.
Pistol Squat Exercise #2: Assisted Reps
With this exercise, you are going to train with the full range of motion.
For assistance, you can use a wall, a table or a rope/band attached to a steady object.
Contrary to the partial pistol squats, assisted squats can be difficult to measure and as such it can be hard to judge your progress.
This is one of the reasons I prefer partial reps.
However, since assisted reps help you train the full range of motion, you should include them in your training plan.
Pistol Squat Exercise #3: Elevated Reps
One of the main difficulties of the pistol squat is holding the non-working leg straight in the air.
If you have a problem with this, you can train on an elevated surface. This will allow you to hold your leg at a lower height and thus make the exercise easier for you.
Similarly to the partial pistols, you can progress by decreasing the elevation of the surface.
Pistol Squat Exercise #4: Iso Holds
In this exercise, you are going to hold different positions of the pistol squat.
You should focus on 3 positions:
Top of the movement
Middle of the movement
Bottom of the movement
You should hold each position 5-10 seconds.
The main purpose of the iso holds is to help you get used in holding the nonworking leg straight in the air.
Furthermore, the iso-holds are going to help you develop your control and balance.
In case you can’t perform the iso holds, you can use assistance.
Helpful Exercises
These exercises can help you target your weak links in order to achieve the pistol squat faster.
The pistol squat is a complex movement that requires a lot of different qualities to be in place in order for you to achieve the movement.
These different qualities are:
Strength. Mostly quad, glutes and hip flexor strength.
Stability, balance and control
Mobility. Mostly in the hips and ankles.
Knowing in which of these areas you are weak, you can make the pistol training more effective by focusing on your weak points.
For example, if you have been training with heavy squats for a while and you can already squat your bodyweight, chances are that quad, glute and hamstring strength isn’t one of the issues and you can focus your attention on the other necessary qualities of the movement.
You can easily find out what of the qualities you are missing by testing your abilities is different movements.
Testing Your Mobility
This is the first test you should perform.
If you lack the mobility to perform a pistol squat, you won’t be able to perform the other tests.
The test is pretty simple.
All you have to do is to go into the bottom position of the squat and see if you can stay in that position for 5-10 seconds.
If you can’t, see what the main issue is.
Is it because of lack of ankle mobility, or do you have a hard time holding the non-working leg straight in the air?
If you aren’t sure, you can perform the same test on an elevated surface so that your non-working leg can stay at a lower height.
If you lack mobility, the fastest way to resolve the issue is to train daily your hip flexors with leg raises and your ankle mobility with ankle dorsiflexion exercises.
Testing Your Strength & Balance
You can easily check which of these two is the limiting factor by performing an assisted pistol squat.
The assistance should be used only for balance purposes.
To perform the assisted rep, place your hard on a wall and try to perform a pistol squat while you are keeping balance with your hand.
If you can successfully perform the movement, you have the necessary strength but you are lacking balance and stability.
If you can’t, then you lack the necessary strength to achieve the movement.
If you lack balance, you can train with assisted reps trying to use less and less assistance every time.
If you lack strength, you should focus on training with partial, negative and assisted reps.
How To Train For The Pistol Squat
In this section, you are going to find some training program samples that you can follow to achieve the pistol squat.
The programs are going to be divided into two categories:
Beginner
Intermediate
These training programs aren’t complete and focus only on the achievement of the pistol squat. Your training program should have pushing, pulling and core exercises as well.
Beginner Training Program
This training program is going to help you master the bodyweight squat and achieve the progression standard (40 reps).
If you have already mastered the bodyweight squat, you should move on to the intermediate program.
The workout program consists of two workouts. The first one is going to help you increase your reps, while the second on your mobility.
Workout #1
A: 3x(sub-max) bodyweight squats
B: 3x(sub-max) iso bottom holds
Notes
Sub-max means that you are going to perform as many reps as possible without going to failure.
Rest 2-3 minutes between sets for bodyweight squats and 60 to 90 seconds for the iso holds.
If you can’t perform full squats, use assisted reps or another progression.
The rest of the weeks are going to have the same format.
You should follow this plan until you can complete 40 reps of bodyweight squats.
Every 4th week can be a deload week, but it’s not necessary since this program isn’t very taxing to the nervous system.
Intermediate Training Program
If you can already perform 40 bodyweight squats, then you can start training directly for the pistol squat.
There are going to be 3 workouts it this training program. Two for strength development and one for mobility, control and balance.
Workout #1
A: 5x(1-5) partial pistol squats (per leg)
Notes
Rest 3-5 minutes between sets.
When you can perform 5×5 decrease the elevation to increase the range of motion.
Workout #2
A: 5×5 assisted pistol squats
Notes
Rest 3-5 minutes between sets.
Try to use the least assistance possible.
Workout #3
A: 5-10 minutes helpful exercise of your choice
B: 5-10 minutes helpful exercise of your choice
Notes
The exercises you choose should focus on your weak links. Such exercises can be the iso-holds and the helpful exercises in the “Pistol Squat Progressions & Helpful Exercises” section.
Every 4th week should be a deload week in which you decrease the intensity of the workouts.
You should alternate between W-1 and W-2 every other day.
Beyond Pistol Squats
Todd, what should I do after I master the pistol squat?
Fortunately, the pistol squat isn’t the last and only bodyweight exercise for your leg development.
After you master it, you can proceed on to master even harder calisthenics leg exercises depending on which strength quality you want to focus on.
Some of the different skills are:
For Explosiveness
If you want to focus on becoming more explosive, you can start training with jumping pistol squats.
In the beginning, you can start with by adding a jump at the top of the movement. After getting good at this, you should start jumping on the top of an object that its height is less than knee height. Gradually, you should increase the height of the box.
For even greater balance, stability and control
If you want to add a mental challenge to the pistol squat, you can start practicing on different surfaces that challenge your balance.
If your goal is to build lots of muscle and gain weight, then heavy squats is a better option.
If you want to build more resilient legs, balance, stability and control, then pistol squats is a better option.
If you want both and have access to weights, then nobody is stopping you from training with both exercises (which, by the way, is a great option).
Question #2: Can I get huge legs with pistol squats?
If you want to have legs that look like the ones power-lifters have, then the answer is no.
Pistol squat can’t provide the muscles with the same stimulus heavy back squats do. So, you can’t have the same results with someone who is squatting just by doing pistols.
Keep in mind, that if you follow muscle building parameters for your progressions, it’s going to take a little longer to achieve the pistol squat, than if you follow strength training ones.
Question #3: How long is it going to take to achieve the pistol squat?
This depends on a lot of factors.
If you already have strong legs, balance and the necessary mobility, then it’s only a matter of learning the movement and it may take just a few days.
If you are a beginner, however, more time will be needed for you to develop all the necessary qualities to achieve the pistol squat.
Usually, it takes 4-8 months.
Conclusion
The pistol squat is one of the greatest calisthenics exercises for your lower body development.
If you are a beginner it might seem that it’s a hard exercise and almost impossible for your knees to handle.
However, with patience and hard work you are going to achieve the movement in no time at all.
Do you have any questions in regards to the pistol squats that were left unanswered?
“This dust will not settle in our time. And when it does some great roaring machine will come and whirl it all sky-high again.”
-Samuel Beckett, All That Fall
Last Thursday Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey was published. It showed the average 30-year rate on a fixed-rate mortgage to be 3.56% with 0.6 points, up a hair from the week prior. As per usual, we note that the survey responses are collected early in the week, and the Survey is pretty much a backward-looking measure. Normally rates don’t change much following the publishing of the survey, unless something seismic happens. And something seismic happened on Thursday night/Friday morning when the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU.
The impact on the markets was swift and severe, with global equities selling off, and most commodity prices (excepting gold, because, you know, shiny metal!) falling immediately. The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed Thursday around 1.74%, and sometime after midnight had fallen to 1.45%, one of the biggest one day shifts I can recall in recent history. Treasuries sold off a bit Friday afternoon, but have since rallied again. Right now 10-year yields are at 1.48% but things are volatile. Movement in mortgage backed securities has been roughly analogous to movement in Treasuries.
We’ll have more on the Brexit below and the possible ramifications below, but for the time being it is safe the say that the markets are rattled, and it prompted a massive flight to safety that ultimately was to the benefit of mortgage rates. I’m not sure that anyone or anything else ultimately benefits from this.
This is a data-heavy week, but I suspect that none of will really matter. It’s all going to be about the fallout from the Brexit. Today we get manufacturing data from the Dallas Fed and international export data. Pretty much a non-factor at the moment. The E.U. Summit this week is the main event this week.
The week that was:
Maryland Senator Clay Davis has a catch phrase that nicely sums up the market action we saw last week that continues this morning, but this is a family blog. There was some data last week (notably, the May Durable Goods report significantly disappointed), but none of it really matters/ed in the run-up to and aftermath of the Brexit vote. So much so that it probably doesn’t make much sense to burn any more words discussing the non-Brexit portions of last week.
Nothing bad ever occurred when nationalist sentiment spread across Europe, right?
In case you were unaware, the U.K. voted to leave the E.U. on Thursday night. This means that the U.K. has two years to negotiate an exit from the E.U. To say that this injected a massive dose of uncertainty into global financial markets would be an understatement. This is unprecedented, and anybody who tells you what will happen is probably making an educated guess at the very best. As the voting became clear, U.S. Treasuries rallied sharply. Global equities plunged. The Euro, the Pound, the Yen, and the are all sharply down against the dollar. Oil, which is traded in dollars, is off as well. This all continues this morning.
It’s worth noting that this is an advisory referendum, and not binding. Maybe the parliament could tell the populace to pound sand down a rathole, but I don’t think that will happen. My guess is that British politicians would like to keep their jobs. There are some rumors that there may be another referendum, but that seems like a slippery slope to me. Point is, there is a small but non-zero chance that this referendum will not stick. As Kent Brockman once said: “democracy simply doesn’t work.”
In terms of U.S. monetary policy, if the UK had remained in Europe, I think it would have been a pretty good bet that the Fed hiked rates in either July or September (despite the poor Durable Goods data, and this assumes the next employment report isn’t a dud). Those chances evaporated between Thursday and Friday. Right now, the Fed Fund futures don’t price in a probable hike until December of 2016 or February of 2017.
Is any of this price action sustainable? Who knows? The Dow closed down about 600 points on Friday, and is down another 200 plus points this morning. Bank stocks in particular are getting hammered. Anyway, here are some things to keep an eye on in the wake of the Brexit:
This could be the first domino in the meltdown of the E.U. Already, Scotland (which overwhelmingly voted to stay in E.U. is saying they should hold another referendum to break from the U.K. Sinn Fein is calling for a vote for a united Ireland (Northern Ireland voted to stay in the E.U., and shares a border with the Republic of Ireland, an E.U. country. There are calls for votes in Italy, France, Holland, and Denmark. You see where this could go. This just emboldens all the nationalists who don’t like Brussels.
David Cameron is stepping down, and a new Tory will be put in place in October. Someone actually needs to negotiate the exit from the E.U., and it’s not clear who that will be. Cameron will not invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (the mechanism through which a country leaves the E.U.) – so we’re going to have months of uncertainty ahead. An aside: David Cameron is likely to be listed with Neville Chamberlain on the big list of worst British PMs. It was Cameron who authorized this vote in the first place. Wade Boggs and Barney will debate it in a bar.
The U.K.’s economy will suffer (the pound is already down more than 10% since Thursday night). I read that France and others want to make an exit painful in order to deter others. Who knows what happens to the pro-leave politicians in the wake of whatever happens. Right now they seem to have absolutely no plan whatsoever. It seems clear that they did not ever actually anticipate winning.
That all the markets so badly missed predictions about the outcome of this vote is concerning for November’s election. I still think the digitally-challenged one will get stomped, but I feel less confident than I did a couple days ago. It seems like a lot of the same motivations that fueled the “leave” voters are fueling the trump voters.
As I mentioned above, I can’t see the Fed hiking any time soon. We’ll see what Yellen says this week. I don’t think “remain calm, all is well,” is going to cut it.
Where all this goes is anyone’s guess. The only thing that is certain is uncertainty.
*I cannot take credit for this line – I read it on a message board, but cannot subsequently find it to credit the likely anonymous person who wrote it in the first place. But I liked it enough to borrow it.
What’s the takeaway for rates this week?:
Rates were close to three year lows before the referendum, and are now lower. I don’t know how much lower yields can go. Ten-year yields are a few basis points above all-time lows. Ponder that for a moment. For the longest time I’ve been saying that I thought it was more probable than not that rates would rise. I certainly didn’t see something like this happening. The market reaction seems to indicate that few did.
I don’t think it is worth belaboring the point – now is a great time to get a new mortgage. This week will be volatile, so it is anyone’s guess how long rates will sit at current levels. Strike while the iron is hot.
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