Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic news out today, but first, your mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Freddie Mac PMMS has rates up slightly
So far this week, not a whole lot has happened in the world of mortgage rates. That’s reflected in the very modest rise in this week’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate went up 2 basis points to 3.66%. The average rate on a 15-year fixed went up 3 basis points to 2.89%. And the average rate on a 5-year ARM went up 1 basis point to 2.88%. All were factored with 0.5 points.
The week isn’t over yet and the biggest risk for mortgage rates comes tomorrow with the May employment situation. It’s not expected to be a strong report, but if it comes in higher than the estimates, that could mean the Fed is more likely to raise rates at an upcoming meeting and push mortgage rates up.
For now, it seems like June is back off the table. Personally, I never thought that the Fed would have enough data to warrant a June hike, but to a lot of market participants, the threat was real. The Fed fund futures has the probability of a June rate hike at 17%. It had climbed all the way up to 34% after hawkish remarks from the Fed last week. The next candidate–July–has a 57%, according to the futures.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is currently at its lowest level of the week at 1.81%. It started the day at 1.84%. Mortgage rates have a tendency to follow the 10-year yield, so for now, mortgage rates are trending lower. Will that continue? We’ll have to check in with the jobs report tomorrow to find out.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
What does this mean for me?
It’s good news. Rates went up a smidgeon, but they are still at very low levels. Anything could happen with the jobs report tomorrow, so my advice here might not be relevant for long, but until then, I think it’s a great time to refinance or purchase a home.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
ADP Employment Report
The ADP estimate for May’s job gains came in at 173,000 this morning. April’s job report was fairly dismal and May isn’t expected to be robust by any means, but it’s possible estimates might be too low right now. Time will tell. The jobs report will be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
The number of individuals who filed for U.S. unemployment benefits for the week of May 28 was 267,000. That’s 1,000 less than the previous week.
EIA Petroleum Status Report
For the week of May 28
- Crude oil went down 1.4 M barrels
- Gasoline went down 1.5 M barrels
- Distillates went down 1.3 M barrels
Miscellanea:
- President Obama spoke about the economy yesterday afternoon in Elkhart, IN, which happens to be the first place he visited after taking office. He tried to allay economic anxiety that he feels is prominent in stating, “By almost every economic measure, America is better off than when I came here as President.”
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Markets Closed – Memorial Day
Tuesday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
- S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- Chicago PMI
- Consumer Confidence
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
Wednesday:
- PMI Manufacturing Index
- ISM Manufacturing Index
- Construction Spending
Thursday:
- ADP Employment Report
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Friday:
- Nonfarm Payrolls Report
- International Trade
- Factory Orders
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/1Y4BegP
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