Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Q1 GDP comes in soft: Markets unfazed
The first estimate for first quarter GDP came in this morning at 0.7%–the weakest growth in three years. Investors weren’t expecting a robust reading but 0.7% is at the very bottom end of the consensus projections. Consumer spending dropped all the way down from 3.5% last quarter to 0.3% in Q1, playing a big role in the soft headline reading.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Apr. 28, 2017).
The slowdown is definitely notable, but most economists think that it’s only a temporary and we’ll see a rebound in the coming months.
The bigger surprise this morning came when the personal expenditures index (PCE index) came in at a 2.4% annual pace in the first quarter. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve’s favorite tool for measuring inflation. With it easily surpassing the Fed’s target of 2% for the first time in years, investors were caught off guard.
Immediately after the report broke investors moved into the Treasury market, pushing prices down and yields up. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note (the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are headed) shot up several basis points.
Mortgage rates are still near 2017 lows. See how low your rate could be.
The initial shock and rally didn’t last long, as the 10-year yield has already fallen back down to where it started the day. That’s kind of been what the market has been like all week. Various events causing little dips and spikes but ultimately, none created any permanent shifts in the market.
Mortgage rates unchanged on the week: stay right above 2017 lows
Mortgage rates basically moved sideways all week, which means that they are still not far off of the 2017 lows that they posted last week.
The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) yesterday showed that the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was at 4.03% (0.5 points). That’s the second lowest reading of 2017. The average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage is at 3.27% (0.4 points), while the average rate on a 5/1 year adjustable rate mortgage is at 3.12% (0.4 points).
Looking ahead to next week, there’s a lot going on with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday to the Monthly Jobs report on Friday.
Fed Fund futures
The CME Group’s Fed Fund futures are still pricing in June as the next most likely meeting for the FOMC to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter point. Right now it has it at a 67.2% chance.
What does this mean for me?
Great time to lock in a rate
Mortgage rates posted their second lowest reading of 2017 in the PMMS this week. That means that right now is a great time for most borrowers to lock in a rate on a purchase or refinance. If you want to find out if it makes financial sense for you, you can crunch the numbers with our mortgage calculators.
The best and most accurate way to determine what course of action to take is by getting a personalized rate quote. You can do this by following that link to our online form, or by making a quick phone call to one of our experienced mortgage specialists. The weekend is the perfect time to take a few minutes of your day and find out if you could be saving yourself some money ever month.
Today’s economic data:
GDP is soft
- Details outlined above
Employment Cost Index
The ECI rose 0.8% in Q1, putting it at 2.4% year over year.
Chicago PMI
The Chicago PMI ticked up to 58.3 for April. That’s a solid reading that points toward strength in the Chicago economy.
Consumer Sentiment
Consumer sentiment came in at 97.0 for April. That’s down a touch from the prior reading of 98.0 but still a respectable showing.
Fedspeak
- Fed Governor Lael Brainard will speak at 1:15pm.
- Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will speak at 2:30pm.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
- Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
Tuesday:
- FHFA House Price Index
- S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
- New Home Sales
- Consumer Confidence
- Richmond Fed Mfg Survey
Wednesday:
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- Durable Goods Orders
- International Trade in Goods
- Jobless Claims
- Pending Home Sales
- Kansas City Fed Mfg Index
Friday:
- GDP
- Employment Cost Index
- Chicago PMI
- Consumer Sentiment
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2oTkLi2
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