Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Rates are down this morning
A string of poor economic data has pushed mortgage rates lower this morning. The most notable reports–Consumer Prices and Retail Sales–both came in with disappointing numbers, causing investors to move more into bonds.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Jul. 14, 2017).
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note (the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are going) immediately dropped about five basis points, putting it under 2.30% for the first time since late June. Since then, it has ticked up a notch and is currently right at 2.30%.
Still, the 10-year yield started the week at 2.39%, so we’re looking at what would be a noticeable decline on the week if the current trend holds. The drop started on Wednesday when the written statement for Janet Yellen’s testimony before Congress was released and showed a surprisingly dovish tone from the Fed Chair.
Mortgage backed securities compete for the same financial market participants as government bonds so yields typically move in the same direction. The drop this week brings some relief to what had been rising rates for the past two weeks.
The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey yesterday showed the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage (the most popular mortgage loan) to be 4.06%. That’s the first time since May that it came in over 4%.
Given the current decline, it’s possible that we see mortgage rates come closer to 4%, and maybe even slightly under next Thursday. There’s not much economic data out on Monday and Tuesday of next week, so wherever rates finish off today could be where they stay for a few trading sessions.
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What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates finish the week down
Mortgage rates took a turn lower this week. That’s great news for anyone who is on the hunt for a new home or who is looking to refinance their current mortgage.
To get the most accurate idea of what kind of rate we could offer, you should fill out our short form and get a personalized rate quote. Or, if you’d rather talk to someone, you can always call one of our experienced mortgage specialists.
They can walk you through the same process, clarifying any questions you may have, and let you know what your custom rate quote is.
Today’s economic data:
Consumer Price Index
Consumer prices were unchanged in June, putting them at 1.6% year over year. So called core CPI (CPI less food and energy) rose a mere 0.1%, which kept it unchanged year over year at 1.7%.
CPI in 2017 has been very slow and it’s not good news for the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated earlier this week that there is some uncertainty surrounding inflation and this report falls right in line with that sentiment.
Retail Sales
Retail sales data came in at a very disappointing -0.2% for June. That’s below the expectations for a 0.1% rise. Retail sales less autos also fell by 0.2%.
Industrial Production
Industrial production rose 0.4% in June. Manufacturing rose 0.2%. The capacity utilization rate is now at 76.6%.
Fedspeak
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan at 9:30am.
Business Inventories
Business inventories for May came in right in line with expectations with a rise of 0.3%.
Consumer Sentiment
Consumer sentiment for July fell two points to 93.1. When combined with the retail sales report, it’s not a strong outlook from consumers.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- JOLTS
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- Fedspeak
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Beige Book
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- PPI-FD
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Consumer Price Index
- Retail Sales
- Industrial Production
- Fedspeak
- Business Inventories
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2umAzQ6
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