Mortgage rates are up a bit today as positive economic data got released and Fed Chair Janet Yellen made more statements that hinted at another rate hike this year. We’ll see what happens as the day progresses, but it’s looking like a rise in rates in tomorrow’s Freddie Mac PMMS. Read on for more details.
Market Outlook 9.25.17 from Total Mortgage on Vimeo.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Rates moving higher
Mortgage rates were in a holding pattern yesterday ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s keynote speech at a conference in Cleveland, Ohio. No one was quite sure what she was going to say, but for once, she actually came out with some fairly straightforward remarks.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Sep. 27, 2017).
Notably, she stated that the Fed should be careful of “moving too gradually” with their tightening schedule. They have to be careful, she said, not to overheat the labor market and cause a spike in inflation. Her comments were just what financial market participants were looking for, bolstering their optimism that another rate hike will indeed take place in 2017.
According to the CME Group’s Fed Funds futures (which reflect the market’s belief in upcoming rate hikes) the December meeting has about an 82% chance of happening. That’s a spike of about 10 percentage points and nearly double where it was a week ago today before the Fed’s September statement was released.
A strong durable goods report is further bolstering investors optimism, and contributing to a surge in Treasury yields this morning. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note (the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are going) is up about six basis points right now, bringing it close to levels not seen since late July. Mortgage rates typically move in the same direction as the 10-year yield, so they’re up a little right now from yesterday’s close.
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What does this mean for me?
Rates still at very low levels
Mortgage rates are up a little today but are still at extremely accommodating levels on the year, not to mention an historical timeline. If you’re on the market for a purchase or refinance, the opportunity is definitely there to get a great deal.
The way the situation is unfolding with the Fed, it does seem, however, that rates are poised to rise over the coming weeks and months. That means that borrowers who act sooner rather than later are likely to get the better rate.
The easiest way to find out your custom rate and best mortgage solution would be is the head on over to our Mortgage Builder.
Today’s economic data:
Durable Goods Orders
Durable goods orders rose 1.7% in August. That’s two tenths higher than the 1.5% rise that was expected by analysts, putting the year over year rate at 5.1%. Durable goods minus transportation rose 0.2%, bringing it to 6.1%, year over year. Core capital goods had a much higher than expected 0.9% rise in August, putting it at 3.6%, year over year.
Pending Home Sales
Pending home sales are down 2.6% for August. That’s a sharp fall that’s more than double the most negative projection from analysts.
EIA Petroleum Status Report
For the week of 9/22/17:
- Crude oil: -1.8 M barrels
- Gasoline: 1.1 M barrels
- Distillates: -0.8 M barrels
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
- Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
Tuesday:
- S&P Case-Shiller HPI
- Fedspeak
- New Home Sales
- Consumer Confidence
- Richmond Fed Mfg Index
Wednesday:
- Durable Goods Orders
- Pending Home Sales
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- GDP
- International Trade in Goods
- Jobless Claims
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
- Chicago PMI
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2xG3WhD
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