Mortgage rates are holding steady today as financial market participants await some key inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday. If you’re looking to buy a home or refinance, let’s talk today about what your custom rate would be. Read on for more details.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Rates move sideways once again
Ever since mortgage rates moved higher at the end of February we’ve seen them stay in a relatively tight range.
Yes, there have been dips and jumps, but for the most part the national average on the 30-year fixed rate has stayed between 4.50%-4.55%.
The latter mark is where the 30-year sat in the most recent Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey from last week.
Trying to think through where mortgage rates will go from here is somewhat of a futile task, as rates are extremely fickle and unforeseen events almost always poke their ugly head into the arena, ruining even the most well thought out projections.
However, all we can ever do is work with what we’re given and adjust along the way. It does seem as though the Fed is positioning themselves towards a more cautious rate hike path during the remainder of 2018.
Historically, we’re looking at a push out until the September meeting. That means another two Federal Open Market Committee meetings (June and August) before we see the nation’s benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate, move up a quarter point to the new target range of 2.00%-2.25%.
Mortgage rates aren’t directly tied to the federal funds rate but the word out from the Fed certainly has an impact on the direction of the market. There will be numerous opportunities for the Fed over the coming months to either play up or walk back their next adjustment.
Those moments are when mortgage rates will be the most susceptible to a dip or spike.
Fedspeak from yesterday:
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin
The emphasis for Barkin was on the minimal threat that raising interest rates has to the U.S. economy right now. He didn’t make any clear cut statements on how many hikes he wants to happen this year, but it’s likely he’s aiming for two or three.
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan
Taking a slightly different approach was Robert Kaplan, who said that there was no need to change the current path that the Fed is on. He’s still holding out for inflation data to pick up before altering the course.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans
No news has broken yet about what Charles Evans said yesterday.
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Rate/Float Recommendation
Locking now is likely the smart move
Mortgage rates are staying relatively flat today. It’s a slow day as far as economic data so this isn’t surprising. Right now, we still believe that locking in a rate sooner rather than later is the smart play. Given the current market environment, it seems more likely that rates will rise than fall.
Learn what you can do to get the best interest rate possible.
Today’s economic data:
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
The NFIB hit a 104.8 in April.
JOLTS
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed 6.550 million jobs added in March.
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Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
- JOLTS
Wednesday:
- PPI-FD
- 10-Yr Note Auction
- Fedspeak
Thursday:
- Consumer Price Index
- Jobless Claims
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Friday:
- Fedspeak
- Consumer Sentiment
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from Total Mortgage Blog https://ift.tt/2jSp2l4
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