Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Financial market participants bought back into government bonds yesterday, pushing yields lower. It seems that some doubt is creeping into the arena about how much influence Trump’s stimulus and tax cuts will have on the economy. Pessimism in the financial markets typically sends mortgage rates lower, which is what we’re seeing right now, with rates down a few basis points from where they were at the start of the week.
The next big threat to rising rates is tomorrow’s 10-year treasury note auction. A strong demand in government bonds will push yields lower, and conversely a weak demand will send yields higher. Mortgage rates will follow wherever the 10-year yield goes.
Fedspeak
Yesterday we got the first two out of a handful of public speeches from Fed officials this week. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren spoke in the morning and came out very hawkish, saying that the Fed needs to quicken the pace with which they increase the federal funds rate.
He raised concerns about the unemployment rate falling further, and inflation overshooting the Fed’s target. It’s something that the Fed hawks have been harping on for quite a while now, and there’s no reason to expect they will stop anytime soon.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
“My own forecast is that we will achieve both elements of the dual mandate by the end of 2017, and as a result, I believe that a still gradual but somewhat more regular increase in the federal funds rate will be warranted.” -Eric Rosengren
The other Fed speaker yesterday, Chicago Fed President Dennis Lockhart, was optimistic, but less hawkish than Rosengren. He said that the economy is positioned for “moderate growth and steadily improving conditions”, but made no promises about quickening the rate hike pace.
Fed Fund Futures
The Fed Fund futures is still showing a slower rate hike pace than what is coming out from the Fed. June is the next meeting with more than a 50% chance. There’s a lot that could happen between now and then, and no one knows for sure what will happen when Donald Trump assumes the presidency.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates are still down on the week but I think that there is the very real possibility that they will finish the week higher. We have several more Fed officials to hear from, and the producer prices report and retail sales report, all of which could cause mortgage rates to rise.
Today’s economic data:
JOLTS
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is showing 5.522 M job openings in November. That’s higher than the previous revised reading of 5.534 M.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- JOLTS
Wednesday:
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- 10-year Note Auction
- Fedspeak
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- Fedspeak
- Import and Export Prices
Friday:
- PPI-FD
- PPI
- Retail Sales
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2j13ljC
No comments:
Post a Comment