Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Jan. 31, 2017).Where are mortgage rates going?
Treasury yields are down several basis points this morning, possibly pulled lower by poor manufacturing and consumer confidence data. The yield on the U.S. 10 year Treasury note (the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are headed) is down to 2.44% from yesterday’s close of 2.49%. That means that mortgage rates are moving lower this morning.
The Fed
It’s day one of the Fed’s two day FOMC meeting. There’s no Janet Yellen press conference tomorrow, just a written statement at 2pm. Financial market participants will certainly be taking a good hard look at the written statement, but no one expects for the Fed to raise the federal funds rate at this meeting.
Instead, they will be parsing every last syllable for clues about when the Fed will raise rates next. Right now, the Fed Fund futures is showing June as the next meeting with over a 50% chance of a rate hike, but some pundits aren’t writing off the March meeting just yet.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Jan. 31, 2017).With so much uncertainty in the economic arena due to the policy changes from the Trump administration, now is as difficult a time as ever to predict what kind of decisions the Fed will make in the coming months. They offered up a three rate hike forecast back in December, but that is by no means a promise. After all, history has shown that the Fed is by no means infallible when it comes to rate hike predictions.
Nevertheless, what kind of language the Fed uses tomorrow will affect the markets and threatens to send mortgage rates higher or lower. A more dovish tone would move rates lower, while an overly hawkish statement would push rates higher. It all happens at 2pm over at federalreserve.gov.
What does this mean for me?
With the potential for a shift in rates due to the Fed’s statement tomorrow, it’s hard to offer up advice. What I can say, is that still seems as though rates will be higher in a few months than where they are now. So if the Fed comes off dovish and rates drop, it provides an opportunity for borrowers to lock in at a lower rate than they will most likely get further on down the road.
Today’s economic data:
FOMC Meeting Begins
The FOMC meeting kicks off today. It wraps up tomorrow afternoon with a written statement at 2pm EST.
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
The 20-city home price index rose by 0.9% in November. That the biggest monthly spike since March 2015. Year on year, the index is at 5.3%.
Chicago PMI
The Chicago PMI came in at 50.3 for January. That’s just barely above the break even point of 50.0.
Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence slowed a touch in January to 111.8 as it comes off a 15-year high in December.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Jan. 31, 2017).Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
- Pending Home Sales
Tuesday:
- FOMC Meeting Begins
- S&P Case-Shiller HPI
- Chicago PMI
- Consumer Confidence
Wednesday:
- ISM Mfg Index
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- ADP Employment Report
- FOMC Meeting Ends
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
Friday:
- Monthly Jobs Report
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2jQKw2H
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