Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s a decent bit of economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Markets holding until Trump’s speech tonight
Financial market participants aren’t making any bold moves this morning. President Trump will address Congress for the first time tonight at 9:00pm, so everyone is basically in wait and see mode until then.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Feb. 28, 2017).No one knows exactly what he’ll say but investors are certainly anticipating that he will divulge some details about his policies, including specifics on his “phenomenal” tax plan, infrastructure program , and healthcare reform, and business regulations overhaul. He’s been talking the talk for well over a month now, and investors are growing weary. They want to keep believing in the pro-growth environment that he’s been promising, but without a clear strategy that this will come into existence, hope is sure to sour into lingering pessimism.
Fed officials continue to put pressure on near term rate hike
Dallas Fed President Patrick Harker said during an interview with CNBC yesterday that the Fed should raise rates “sooner rather than later.” He went further, stating:
“I actually think we’re now much closer to meeting our employment and inflation objectives… Once you’ve decided that, you need to take advantage of those windows when they present themselves.”
His comments did bolster investor opinion on the matter, bumping up the CME’s Fed Fund futures (which reflects the market’s belief in upcoming rate hikes) for the March meeting to 33.2%. That’s still a far cry from an optimistic outlook, but it is steadily gaining traction. The meeting takes place on March 14-15, so there’s only a couple weeks left to sway the markets into believing it will happen. Generally, the FOMC doesn’t like to hike if investors mostly think a rate hike won’t happen. It will be interesting to see how Trump’s speech tonight affects market sentiment toward the March meeting.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Feb. 28, 2017).What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates are still holding at historically low levels. This is good news for anyone looking to refinance their current mortgage or make a purchase on a home.
Today’s economic data:
GDP is Unchanged
The second estimate for fourth-quarter GDP, at 1.9%, is unchanged from the first estimate. Consumer spending is up slightly, however, government spending slipped, keeping the report from rising. Economists had been expecting a growth of 2.1%.
International Trade in Goods
The U.S. trade deficit widened to $69.2 B in January. That’s notably more than the prior revised reading of $64.4 B and the consensus prediction for $66.0 B.
Home Prices Rise in S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
According to the latest S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI report, home prices continued to rise across the U.S. in December. The 20-city, SA (seasonally adjusted) index rose 0.9% for the second straight report. The 20-city, NSA (non seasonally adjusted) rose 0.3%, up one tenth from the previous report. That puts it at 5.6% year over year.
Chicago PMI Beats Expectations
The Chicago PMI came in hot for February at 57.4. That’s well above the consensus for 53.0 and is even outside the top-end consensus range of 54.5.
Consumer Confidence Remains High
Consumer confidence for February is at 114.8. That’s up from the prior reading of 111.8 and above the consensus for 111.3. That’s actually the highest reading since July 2001.
Fedspeak
- Philly Fed President Patrick Harker speaks at 3:00pm
- San Francisco Fed President John Williams will speak at 3:30pm
- St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will talk at 6:30pm
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Durable Goods Orders
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- GDP
- International Trade in Goods
- S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
- Chicago PMI
- Consumer Confidence
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
- ISM Mfg Index
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Beige Book
- Fedspeak
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Fedspeak
- ISM Non Mfg Index
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2m9jYeW
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