Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Feb. 1, 2017).Where are mortgage rates going?
Jobs data pushing rates higher
An incredibly strong ADP employment report has ushered in a wave of momentum that’s taking treasury yields and mortgage rates higher this morning. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is up five basis points from yesterday’s close, bringing it to 2.51%. Mortgage rates typically follow wherever the 10-year yield goes.
No one was expecting the ADP employment report to be nearly as robust as the 246,000 private sector jobs that it’s predicting were added in January. The news comes after two mostly flat days, and just hours before the FOMC concludes its meeting with a written statement. The monthly jobs report on Friday always has the potential to be a big market moving event, and if these numbers hold up, that would bolster confidence about the U.S. economy and put upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Most analysts are expecting a more cautious tone from the Fed in today’s statement (and the coming months), given all of the recent uncertainty brought about by the new administration. However, if the economic data keeps beating out expectations, the Fed hawks will have plenty of ammunition to go to bat with. Given the way things have gone these past few weeks, it seems that there will undoubtedly be more unexpected moments of volatility as investors struggle to come to terms with something President Trump does.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Feb. 1, 2017).What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates are back on the rise. Depending on what the Fed says later today, rates could build on this momentum or fall back down to where they started the day. If the Fed doesn’t come off too dovish, and the employment report is strong on Friday, rates could see a big swing up. That would mean borrowers would be better off acting sooner rather than later.
Today’s economic data:
ISM Mfg Index
The ISM Mfg index came in at 56.0 for January. That’s just above the consensus for 55.0.
EIA Petroleum Status Report
For the week of 1/27/17:
- Crude oil: 6.5 M barrels
- Gasoline: 3.9 M barrels
- Distillates: 1.6 M barrels
ADP Employment Report
The ADP employment report is predicting 246,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in January. That’s massively higher than the consensus for 168,000.
FOMC Meeting Ends
The FOMC meeting concludes today with a written statement at 2pm.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Feb. 1, 2017).Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
- Pending Home Sales
Tuesday:
- FOMC Meeting Begins
- S&P Case-Shiller HPI
- Chicago PMI
- Consumer Confidence
Wednesday:
- ISM Mfg Index
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- ADP Employment Report
- FOMC Meeting Ends
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
Friday:
- Monthly Jobs Report
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2ks5yoZ
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