Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Mortgage rates are up slightly to start the week
The polls got it right in France, as Emmanuel Macron came away with a decisive victory over Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election yesterday. There was always the threat that the markets would go haywire if Le Pen were the victor (due to her anti-EU position), so financial market participants near and far breathed a collective sigh of relief when the news broke.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (May. 8, 2017).
Geopolitical events have been topping the headlines for a few weeks now but with the French election over with and tensions cooling off somewhat elsewhere, investor focus has shifted back to domestic data. The most significant reports will be released later in the week. The PPI-FD report comes out on Thursday, and then CPI and Retail Sales will get released on Friday. The Friday reports are likely to have the most effect on the markets.
We’re getting closer and closer to the Fed’s meeting on June 14, and investors are looking for more certainty that a quarter point increase in the federal funds rate will happen. The monthly jobs report on Friday was a big step in the right direction, with 211,000 jobs added in April.
The CME Group’s fed fund futures showed a jump in investor optimism about June after that report, and that optimism continued to rise after Macron walked away with the win yesterday. Right now, the fed fund futures currently have the chance of a June rate hike at 87.7%. That’s a substantial increase from the 67.5% it was at one week ago from today.
We’re kind of in that zone where as long as the economic data that comes out isn’t terrible, the Fed will most likely follow through with a rate hike. That means that if the inflation data this week just needs to stay somewhere close to the Fed’s target of 2.0%.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated this morning that “We have met the maximum employment part of our mandate and inflation is nearing our 2% goal”, and went on to say that she believes the current economic situation is healthy enough to warrant further rate increases.
In contrast, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said this morning that “The natural rate of interest, and hence the appropriate policy rate, low and unlikely to change very much.” It’s not unusual for Fed officials to disagree on the course of action. We hear from several other officials later in the week, and it will be interesting to see what position they take.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (May. 8, 2017).
Mortgage rates generally move higher when the economy is doing well and when there is less uncertainty in the markets. Thanks to the monthly jobs report and the Macron victory, rates are up slightly today.
What does this mean for me?
Act sooner rather than later
Mortgage rates seem poised to continue on their gradual climb this week. That means that anyone looking to lock in a rate on a purchase or refinance shouldn’t wait too long to lock. Inflation data at the end of the week is the biggest threat to rising rates, so right now is the perfect time to think about things and make a decision.
To get the most accurate idea of what kind of rate we could offer, you should fill out our short form and get a personalized rate quote. If you’d rather talk to someone, you can always call one of our experienced mortgage specialists.
They can walk you through the same process, clarifying any questions you may have, and let you know what your custom rate quote is.
Today’s economic data:
Fedspeak
- St. Louis Fed President James Bullard at 8:35am
- Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester at 8:45am
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
- JOLTS
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- Import and Export Prices
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Fedspeak
- 10-Yr Note Auction
- Treasury Budget
Thursday:
- Fedspeak
- Jobless Claims
- PPI-FD
Friday:
- Consumer Price Index
- Retail Sales
- Fedspeak
- Business Inventories
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2pYnGYe
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