It’s another fairly quiet day in the markets, but mortgage rates are seeing some mild upward pressure thanks to some positive economic data that got released this morning. The good news is that rates are still close to some of the lowest levels of the year and could stay there for the rest of the week. Read on for more details.
Market Outlook 10.16.17 from Total Mortgage on Vimeo.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Rates inch higher – still at low levels
Some positive economic data got released yesterday, allowing the risk-on sentiment that was initially bolstered by hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen to continue throughout the day.
[tmslink name = “rates”]
Today, a stronger than expected import prices report is giving fresh legs to that rally, resulting in some mild pressure on Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note (the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are going) is up about three basis points on the week.
Mortgage rates typically move in the same direction as the 10-year yield, so rates are up just a touch over the past two days. Looking ahead to the rest of the week there are several more important economic releases that could affect rates.
We’ve got housing starts tomorrow, the Philly Fed Outlook on Thursday, and Existing Home Sales on Friday. Anyone who is considering taking action right now should keep an eye on those reports and see what happens with the market.
Generally, the more positive the data is the higher mortgage rates will rise. There’s no reason to be overly nervous about rates surging higher, though, as these reports aren’t likely to have that kind of effect.
It’s much more likely that we see a moderate change of a few basis points here and there, which depending on the overall trend, could result in a wash with rates staying flat as we head into the weekend.
Get the GreenLight and close in 21 days*
Mortgage rates are incredibly fickle and it’s nearly impossible to say with a high degree of certainty exactly where they will go. However, most analysts expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates at their December meeting, so there is the belief that rates will rise over the near-term.
What does this mean for me?
Great time to lock a rate
With mortgage rates continuing to stay at some of the lowest levels of 2017, right now is a great time to lock in a rate on a purchase or refinance.
Click here to head to our Mortgage Builder and figure out how much you could save.
Today’s economic data:
Import and Export Prices
Import prices rose by 0.7% in September, putting them at 2.7% year over year. Export prices rose 0.8% month over month, bringing them to 2.9% year over year.
Industrial Production
Production rose 0.3% in September, which is slightly above the consensus for 0.2%. Manufacturing grew by 0.1%, a few tenths of a point below the consensus for 0.4%.
Housing Market Index
The housing market index for October came in at 68, which is four points above the consensus for 64. That’s the highest reading in five months.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Empire State Mfg Survey
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- Import and Export Prices
- Industrial Production
- Housing Market Index
Wednesday:
- Fedspeak
- Housing Starts
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Beige Book
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey
Friday:
- Existing Home Sales
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Blog http://ift.tt/2x2V8zi
No comments:
Post a Comment