Mortgage rates are continuing to move higher today. Positive economic data combined with the news surrounding the next Fed Chair are contributing to the rise. Tomorrow is a big day for the markets with the ECB meeting so we could see another change in rates at that time. Read on for more details.
Market Outlook 10.23.17 from Total Mortgage on Vimeo.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Rates still moving higher
Some positive economic data this morning is contributing to the continued upward push for Treasury yields.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note (the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are going) is now up to 2.45%–it’s highest position in seven months. Mortgage rates typically move in the same direction as the 10-year yield and are similarly dealing with some upward pressure this week.
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Tomorrow we get the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) so we’ll see what kind of impact the bond sell-off this past week has had on the mortgage market as a whole.
We are also going to be dealing with the news out of the European Central Bank tomorrow as they hold a very important meeting on monetary policy.
The expectation is that they’ll make some sort of adjustment to their current bond-buying program. Analysts are calling for a reduction to 30-40 billion euros of assets purchased every month, down from 60 billion.
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There will be a press conference with ECB President Mario Draghi immediately following the meeting. Financial market participants will be closely watching and we could certainly see a market reaction after a decision comes out.
Rate/Float Recommendation
Lock in your rate today
Mortgage rates have been on the rise the past week. The good news is that they have a long ways to go before they get anywhere close to what would be considered high levels for 2017.
Still, we are recommending that borrowers lock a rate on a refinance or purchase sooner rather than later. If you’re not faced with an immediate decision, you could choose to float and try to get in on a dip–but that’s a risky game to play and it’s definitely not for everyone.
Click here to head to our Mortgage Builder and figure out how much you could save.
Today’s economic data:
Durable Goods Orders
New orders came in over a fully point higher than the consensus for September at 2.2%, putting them at 8.3% year over year. Ex-transportation ticked up 0.7% in September, bringing them to 7.5% year over year. Core capital goods moved up 1.3% in September, making it 7.8% year over year. Overall, it’s a very strong durable goods report.
New Home Sales
New Home Sales for September came in at an annualized rate of 667,000, which is well above the consensus for 555,000.
EIA Petroleum Status Report
For the week of 10/20/17:
- Crude oil: -5.7 M barrels
- Gasoline: 0.9 M barrels
- Distillates: 0.5 M barrels
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Nothing
Tuesday:
- PMI Composite Flash
Wednesday:
- Durable Goods Orders
- New Home Sales
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- International Trade in Goods
- Jobless Claims
- European Central Bank Meeting
- Pending Home Sales Index
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- GDP
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Blog http://ift.tt/2xneyiD
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