Happy Friday, and welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic news out today, but first, your mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Rates Rise in Freddie Mac PMMS
The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey came out on Thursday morning and it revealed that mortgage rates edged up this week. The average rate on a 30-year fixed went up six basis points from last week to 3.64% (0.5 points). The average rate on a 15-year fixed went up eight basis points to 2.89% (0.5 points), and the average rate on a 5-year ARM rose 7 basis points to 2.87% (0.5 points).
What caused the rise? Usually, it’s difficult to pin down exactly what caused a weekly change in mortgage rates, but this time, it’s fairly obvious that the hawkish FMOC minutes and subsequent statements from Fed officials pushed rates up. Fortunately, rates were very low last week, and the rise hasn’t really pushed them anywhere close to what would be considered unaccommodating. The 30-year fixed is a mere 7 basis points above the 2016 low and only 33 basis points above the all-time low.
Fed Fund futures don’t discount June
Over the past six weeks, there were a lot of disgruntled Fed officials venting about how upset they are that the market had completely discounted a June rate hike. The Fed Fund futures, which reflect the market’s belief in the likelihood of a rate hike, had been as low as 3% at one point. Right now, it’s sitting at 28%. Fed officials are undoubtedly pleased about the markets taking June more seriously. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Thursday morning that he feels the markets “read the minutes correctly” and that the futures more accurately reflect June’s chances.
10-year yield falls stays flat
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note dipped down on midday Thursday and it hasn’t really budged from that position. At 1.84%, it’s basically right where it was at the start of the week. Mortgage rates have a tendency to trail behind 10-year yield.
What does this mean for me?
It’s still a low rate environment. That means that if you’re thinking about refinancing or purchasing a home, right now is a great time to do it.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
First-Quarter GDP Up but Still Low
The second estimate of first-quarter GDP came in at 0.8% this morning, which is up from the first estimate of 0.5%.
Consumer Sentiment
Consumer sentiment fell from last week’s level at 95.8 down to 94.7. Overall, May was a very strong month for consumer sentiment.
Janet Yellen speaks
Janet Yellen is set to receive an award and speak today at 1:15 PM. It’s possible she won’t say anything interesting, but it’s also somewhat anticipated that she’ll echo the hawkish sentiments of her colleagues.
Miscellanea:
- The biggest club football event of the year–the Champions League Final–takes place this weekend with Atlético Madrid facing off against Real Madrid. The super bowl might rake in more money, with $3 billion in broadcasting rights to the champions league’s $1.6 billion, but the champions league final is watched by over 360 million people compared to the super bowl’s 112 million. As far as Saturday’s game is concerned, Atletico has a solid squad, but I wouldn’t want to face off against Ronaldo with Zidane at the helm.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
- Treasury auctions
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- New Home Sales
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
- Treasury auctions
Wednesday:
- International Trade in Goods
- EIA Petroleum Status report
- Treasury auctions
Thursday:
- Durable Goods Orders
- Weekly Jobless Claims
- Treasury auctions
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- GDP
- Consumer Sentiment
- Janet Yellen speaks
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/1RwYRHe
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