Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic news out today, but first, your mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Mortgage rates rose last week in response to the FOMC minutes from the week before. It’s a short week this week, but we do get the May employment situation (a.k.a. the “jobs report”), which always draws a lot of attention from the markets. The April report was very soft, putting pressure on May to keep a June rate hike alive. The Econoday consensus is for 158,000 jobs to be added. We’ll see what happens. For now, mortgage rates are flat to slightly higher from where they were last week.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Fed Fund futures
The Fed Fund futures have the chance of a rate hike at the June meeting at 24%. Last week it was around 28-30% all week. It’s possible investors have stepped back a little after Core PCE came in lower than the Fed would like this morning.
10-year yield rises
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has been up and down this morning. It started at 1.85% and made it all the way up to 1.89% before heading back down to its current position of 1.86% It’s hard to say where it will go from here. Mortgage rates typically follow the lead of the 10-year yield.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates have been on the rise but are still at low levels. There’s definitely some risk that they could rise higher after the release of the jobs report on Friday. I’ve been saying it for a while but I still think it’s true that if you’re in the market to purchase a home or refinance your current mortgage, you’re better off acting sooner rather than later.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Personal Income and Outlays are Mixed
Personal income went up 0.4% in April, which was right in line with economist’s expectations. Consumer spending rose a solid 1.0%. The Fed’s favorite inflation measure–the Core PCE–went up only 0.2% in April. Year over year it’s sitting below the 2% target at 1.6%.
Consumer Confidence is down
Consumer confidence came in at 92.6 in May, down from the prior reading of 94.2. The almost 2 point drop was not what economists had predicted. The report conflicts somewhat with the fairly strong data in the consumer spending reading.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Markets Closed for Memorial Day
Tuesday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
- Consumer Confidence
Wednesday:
- PMI Manufacturing
- Beige Book
Thursday:
- ADP Employment Report
- Jobless Claims
Friday:
- Employment Situation
- International Trade
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/1PfZryQ
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