Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice. Don’t feel like reading? Check out our market outlook series to see what’s happening this week.
Market Outlook 6.12.17 from Total Mortgage on Vimeo.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Weak inflation data sends rates down near 2017 lows
Inflation data out this morning showed that consumer prices declined by a tenth of a point in May, bringing the year over year rate down from 2.2% to 1.9%. That means it’s now below the Fed’s target of 2.0%. The drop was unexpected, and it’s really thrown a wrench in the Fed’s policy path.
The Fed, which wraps up its two-day policy meeting this afternoon, is now expected to make more a dovish rate-hike. That would most likely mean that a September rate hike is off the table for now.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Jun. 14, 2017).
The market reaction to this inflation data has been swift. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note (the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are going) has fallen nearly nine basis points this morning to 2.12%. That’s the lowest point it’s been at since November.
Mortgage rates typically follow in the footsteps of the 10-year yield, so rates have taken a bit of a dive today. The drop puts them right back down near 2017 lows. How long they’ll stay there is uncertain.
It really depends on what the Fed statement looks like and what Fed Chair Janet Yellen says during her press conference.
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What does this mean for me?
Keep an eye on the Fed – Get ready to lock
Mortgage rates have tumbled today back down near 2017 lows. Anyone who has been on the fence about a purchase or refinance should seriously consider locking in a rate. Just make sure you keep an eye on the Fed meeting because what happens there could affect which way rates move in the afternoon.
To get the most accurate idea of what kind of rate we could offer, you should fill out our short form and get a personalized rate quote. If you’d rather talk to someone, you can always call one of our experienced mortgage specialists.
They can walk you through the same process, clarifying any questions you may have, and let you know what your custom rate quote is.
Today’s economic data:
Consumer Price Index Slips
Consumer prices fell 0.1% in May, putting it at 1.9%. CPI less food and energy ticked up 0.1%, bringing it to 1.7% year over year. With CPI falling to 1.9% year over year, that’s below the Fed’s target of 2% inflation.
It’s definitely going to be a concern for Fed officials who have been expecting inflation to rise. It’s not going to be enough to stop the rate hike from happening today, but it very likely will make officials reconsider their outlooks.
Retail Sales
Retails sales fell 0.3% month over month in May. Retail sales less autos also fell 0.3%. Retail sales less autos and gas was unchanged.
EIA Petroleum Status Report
For the week of 6/9/17:
- Crude oil: 3.3 M barrels
- Gasoline: 3.3 M barrels
- Distillates: 4.4 M barrels
FOMC Meeting Ends
The Fed’s FOMC meeting wraps up today with a written statement at 2:00pm and a Janet Yellen press conference at 2:30pm.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Nothing
Tuesday:
- FOMC Meeting Begins
- PPI-FD
Wednesday:
- Consumer Price Index
- Retail Sales
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- FOMC Meeting Ends
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- Philly Fed Business Outlook
- Empire State Mfg
- Import and Export Prices
- Housing Market Index
- Industrial Production
Friday:
- Housing Starts
- Consumer Sentiment
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2saBsYO
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