Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s a decent bit of economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Mortgage Rates Down in Freddie Mac PMMS
The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey just got released and it’s showing that mortgage rates fell this week.
- The average rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped six basis points to 4.10% (0.5 points).
- The average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage fell five basis points to 3.32% (0.5 points).
- The average rate on a 5-year adjustable rate mortgage slid two basis points to 3.14% (0.4 points).
Here is what chief economist at Freddie Mac Sean Becketti had to say this week about mortgage rates:
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Mar. 2, 2017).“The 10-year Treasury yield remained relatively flat this week, while the 30-year mortgage rate fell 6 basis points to 4.1 percent. Since the beginning of the year, the 10-year Treasury yield has covered a 22 basis point range. The range of movement for the 30-year has been half that, just 11 basis points.”
One important thing to note here is that data for the survey is mostly collected on Monday and Tuesday, and would therefore not take into account the market spike late Tuesday and Wednesday. Economic reports are always lagging indicators, and in this case it doesn’t paint a completely accurate picture of the reality on the ground. If the current trend continues, mortgage rates should come in higher in next week’s PMMS.
Fed Continues to Signal for Rate Hike in March
Fed Governor Lael Brainard came out yesterday and joined her fellow Fed officials in propping up the rate hike chances for the March meeting. During a speech at Harvard University she said:
“Assuming continued progress, it will likely be appropriate soon to remove additional accommodation, continuing on a gradual path… We are closing in on full employment, inflation is moving gradually toward our target, foreign growth is on more solid footing and risks to the outlook are as close to balanced as they have been in some time.”
Her comments are notable as she’s been a leading proponent of keeping rates low. The fact that she’s switching gears is telling investors that change might certainly be looming closer. The Fed Fund futures shot up Tuesday, to around a 70% chance of a rate hike in March, and have since risen to 75.3%.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Mar. 2, 2017).The events this week have shown how quickly the tide can change, as the futures only gave March about a 30% chance on Monday. Unless some unforeseen event happens, or all upcoming economic reports are abysmal, it seems that the FOMC will raise the federal funds rate by a quarter percent to .75%-1.00% on March 15th.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates are still at levels that are very low, historically speaking. It does seem as though a rally has been started this week, that could continue through the FOMC meeting on the 15th. Since that’s the case, I think it makes sense for borrowers to lock in a rate on a refinance or a purchase sooner rather than later.
Today’s economic data:
Jobless Claims Point to Strong Labor Market
Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits came in at 223,000 for the week of 2/25. That’s 19,000 below the previous reading and 17,000 below what economists had predicted. The four week moving average is now at 234,250.
Fedspeak
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak this evening at 7:00pm.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Durable Goods Orders
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- GDP
- International Trade in Goods
- S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
- Chicago PMI
- Consumer Confidence
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
- ISM Mfg Index
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Beige Book
- Fedspeak
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Fedspeak
- ISM Non Mfg Index
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2m04lns
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