Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Mortgage rates tick down after Brexit formally begins
It’s been an up and down week for the markets so far. After getting hammered on Monday, the U.S. stock market found some legs to stand on with the release of the Consumer Confidence report for March.
The report, which surveys consumers about their economic optimism, boasted a reading of 125.6. That happened to be the highest reading since December 2000. And it wasn’t as though this was expected: the economic forecast was for a 114.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Mar. 29, 2017).The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note (the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are headed) rose about five basis points in afternoon trading. Today it’s come down a little over two basis points to 2.39%.
The downturn today is mostly due to the fact that the U.K. formally began the Brexit process with the deliverance of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Article 50 letter to the EU. Now it’s on to two long years of negotiation to figure out exactly what a Brexit will mean.
It’s already been signaled that it will be a “hard Brexit”, meaning that the U.K. will leave the common market, but several important details remain to ironed out. European Council President Donald Tusk did not mince words when he said there is “no reason to pretend this is a happy day.”
All of this means that mortgage rates are slightly above where they were at the start of the week. There are a few speaking engagements from Federal Reserve officials today, but it’s not certain that there will be any market moving comments. So far this week, the fedspeak has been fairly tame and hasn’t been fuel for any significant market trading.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Mar. 29, 2017).Checking in with the CME Group’s Fed Fund futures we can see that the probability of a quarter point increase in the federal funds rate at the June meeting is unchanged from yesterday at 50.7%.
What does this mean for me?
It’s been a roller-coaster week so far. The biggest threat to rising rates remains the PCE data on Friday morning. If you aren’t in a position to deal with the risk of a spike in rates, it would make sense to lock in a rate before then. Rates are still on the low side for 2017, so it could be a prudent decision to take action.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Mar. 29, 2017).For anyone who wants to roll the dice, you could always wait until Friday and bank on inflation not coming in near the Fed’s target. It really boils down to what kind of borrower you are, and what your current situation looks like. It doesn’t take long to pick up the phone and call one of our loan specialists to find out what the best course of action for you is.
Today’s economic data:
Fedspeak
- Chicago Fed President Charles Evans at 9:20am.
- Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren at 11:30am.
- San Francisco Fed President John Williams at 1:15pm.
Pending Home Sales Index
Pending home sales are up 5.5% in February, bringing the PHSI up to 112.3. That’s the highest reading in 11 months and the second best reading since 2006. While this increase, which is well above the consensus, is good news, the year on year rate is still fairly low at 2.6%.
EIA Petroleum Status Report
For the week of 3/24/17:
- Crude oil: 0.9 M barrels
- Gasoline: -3.7 M barrels
- Distillates: -2.5 M barrels
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- International Trade in Goods
- S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
- Consumer Confidence
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
- State Street Investor Confidence Index
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- Fedspeak
- Pending Home Sales Index
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- GDP
- Jobless Claims
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
- Chicago PMI
- Consumer Sentiment
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2nh2b1C
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