It’s been a little over 7 years since the “Never Say Die” Bruins defeated the Canucks in Vancouver to win their first Stanley Cup in 39 years. Then Canucks fans torched their own city….sore losers eh? Well the pain and disappointent will NEVER GO AWAY…. Daily Hive: That doesn’t look right. Doesn’t feel right, [...]
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There is a lot of activity on the horizon as we step into what could be a very hectic week. A monthly jobs report on Friday and an FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday are just a couple of the highlights that we’ll be dealing with over the next several days. With everything going on, it’s not unreasonable to expect mortgage rates to move around a little bit. Read on for more details.
There are some weeks when you look at the economic calendar and it feels like someone forgot to do the scheduling.
Then there are weeks such as this one when it seems as though the scheduler undertook some sort of challenge where they tried to cram as many events as they could into the week.
We have multiple economic reports out nearly every day that could influence the direction of mortgage rates. Of course, the biggest event of the week will likely be the Monthly Jobs Report for July on Friday morning.
That report is always one of the most closely watched pieces of economic data each month and there’s no reason to believe this time around will be different.
Analysts are predicting that 188,000 jobs will have been shown to be added to the U.S. economy. That’s a strong enough headline reading to put some upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Of course, investors will also be looking at average hourly earnings and the participation rate, both of which will need to be at healthy levels for market participants to remain confident in the labor market.
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Mortgage rates could certainly fluctuate this week as the various reports get digested by financial market participants. It’s always hard to hang your hat on one outcome during weeks like this one, but if I had to bet, I’d say that mortgage rates will wind up at slightly higher levels on Friday afternoon than where they are now.
More importantly, they are poised to gradually rise in the long-term so most borrowers are going to be better off locking in a rate on a purchase or refinance sooner rather than later.
Pending home sales increased 0.9% in June. That’s a step in the right direction after several months of less than stellar readings.
The production index hit a 29.4 in July. The general activity index hit 32.3.
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With concern over global trade easing financial market participants have been moving more into stocks and out of bonds, creating some upward pressure on mortgage rates. At the end of the day, though, rates are still hovering around the tight range they’ve been in for several months now. Read on for more details.
Current mortgage rates have gradually moved higher this week. After several weeks of concern over the global trade war, financial market participants moved into the safe haven of government bonds.
For the past couple of weeks we have seen this trend reverse itself with investors beginning to take on more risk and push more money into stocks. So now we’re seeing demand for long-term Treasury yields move lower, sending yields higher.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note (the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are going) has ticked up about ten basis points since last Friday.
Mortgage rates typically move in the same direction as the 10-year yield so we’ve seen rates rise from the previous week. Here are the numbers from today’s Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS):
Here is what the Freddie Mac Economic and Housing Research Group had to say about rates this week:
“Mortgage rates moved up slightly over the past week to their highest level since late June.
The next few months will be key for gauging the health of the housing market. Existing sales appear to have peaked, sales of newly built homes are slowing and unsold inventory is rising for the first time in three years.
Meanwhile, affordability pressures are increasingly a concern in many markets, as the combination of continuous price gains and higher mortgage rates appear to be giving more prospective buyers a pause. This is why new and existing-home sales are not breaking out this summer despite the healthy economy and labor market.”
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Mortgage rates have increased the past couple of weeks. With the Federal Reserve expected to raise the nation’s benchmark interest rate over the coming months, it’s reasonable to expect that mortgage rates will rise as well. It therefore makes sense that if you’re going to buy a home or refinance your current mortgage, you should do so sooner rather than later.
Durable goods orders in June rose 1.0% from the previous month. Durable goods minus transportation ticked up 0.4%. Core capital goods rose 0.6%.
The nation’s trade deficit widened to $68.3 billion in June.
Applications filed for U.S. unemployment benefits came in at 217,000 for the week of 7/26/18. That puts the 4-week moving average at 218,000.
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Mortgage rates have been floating around a tight window for the past few months now, but we are likely going to see them rise as the end of the year draws nearer. If you’re looking to buy a home or refinance your current mortgage, taking action soon is probably the best bet. Read on for more details.
It seems like it’s been one step forward and one step backwards for mortgage rates over the past few months. This has kept rates in a very narrow range.
According to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage has bounced around between 4.47% and 4.66% between late April and now.
Compared to the steep run-up we saw in the beginning of the year, the current mortgage rates environment has been very stable. Here are the latest numbers from today’s PMMS:
Here is what the Economic and Housing Research Group at Freddie Mac had to say about mortgage rates this week:
“Mortgage rates were once again mostly flat over the past week, inching backward slightly.
Manufacturing output and consumer spending showed improvements, but construction activity was a disappointment. This meant there was no driving force to move mortgage rates in any meaningful way, which has been the theme in the last two months. That’s good news for price sensitive home shoppers, given that this stability in borrowing costs allows them a little extra time to find the right home.
Unfortunately, don’t expect much relief from the tight inventory conditions plaguing many markets. As seen again last month, new home construction is not picking up to meet demand, and as a result, home prices are still rising at double the pace of income growth.”
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Current mortgage rates are staying in a tight range right now but Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed that the Federal Reserve is on track to gradually increase the nation’s benchmark interest rate. Right now the general consensus is that that will happen at least one, possibly two, more times this year.
When it becomes apparent that the Fed is about to hike, mortgage rates will move higher. Given this expectation, we believe that the smart decision for most borrowers is to lock in on a purchase or refinance sooner rather than later. The longer you wait the more likely it is that you’ll wind up locking in a higher rate.
Applications filed for U.S. unemployment benefits for the week of 7/14/18 came in at 207,000. That’s down 8,000 from the previous week, putting the four-week moving average at 220,500.
The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey rose sharply in July, coming in at 25.7. That’s four points higher than the 22.0 that analysts had expected.
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Here we go with another week. After some positive economic data mortgage rates have moved slightly higher. We have several notable economic reports out over the next few days as well as the ongoing trade talk concerns, so rates could move around a little. Read on for more details.
The retail sales report for June got released today, and it showed a healthy uptick of 0.5% from the previous month. Not only that, but the May reading got revised from a month over month rise of 0.8% to 1.3%.
All of the news outlets are reporting on this story and citing how it demonstrates that the U.S. economy finished out the second-quarter on a high note.
Given the perceived strength of the economy, financial market participants are taking on more risk today, moving money out of the safe haven of long-term government bonds and into stocks.
This is pushing the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which is the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are going, up almost five basis points on the day.
Mortgage rates typically move in the same direction as the 10-year yield, so we’re seeing a little upward pressure to start the week.
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Mortgage rates are on track to increase over the coming months as the Federal Reserve gets ready to, and follows through with more increases to the nation’s benchmark interest rate.
To avoid locking in a higher interest rate, we recommend that borrowers take action on a purchase or refinance, sooner rather than later.
Retail sales for June increased by 0.5% month over month. Retail sales less autos rose 0.4%. Retail sales less autos and gas ticked up 0.3%. The control group was unchanged.
Overall, it’s a solid report that points toward a strong finish for consumer spending in the second-quarter.
The General Business Conditions Index for July hit 22.6. That’s just a hair above the 22.0 that analysts had predicted.
Business inventories increased by 0.4% in May.
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Mortgage rates have moved up slightly this week. They are still hovering in the tight range that they’ve been in for the past couple of months, but we did see a modest nudge higher. If you’re considering a purchase or a refinance, we believe the smart move is to lock in a rate soon. Read on for more details.
Market Outlook 7.9.18 from Total Mortgage on Vimeo.
It’s been a fairly uneventful week (unless you count the drama in the World Cup), keeping mortgage rates from moving too far in either direction. Long-term Treasury yields have moved up and down, but are ultimately resting at levels very close to where they were at the start of the week.
In the headlines, analysts are still talking about the global trade war that is taking place, with the U.S. and China being the main players here. It’s definitely an interesting situation at the moment because no one really knows exactly where we are headed.
What we can say, though, is that with the inflation readings this week coming in at strong levels and last week’s monthly jobs report showing a healthy labor market, the Federal Reserve is posed to continue raising the nation’s benchmark interest rate.
This might not put immediate upward pressure on mortgage rates, but as we move through the third and fourth quarter this year it is reasonable to expect mortgage rates to increase.
We did get the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) today, which showed that rates inched higher. Here are the numbers:
Here is what the Economic and Housing Research Group at Freddie Mac had to say about rates this week:
“Mortgage rates were mostly unchanged, but did tick up for the first time since early June.
The 10-year Treasury yield continues to hover along the same narrow range, as increased global trade tensions are causing investors to take a cautious approach. This in turn has kept borrowing costs at bay, which is certainly welcoming news for those looking to buy a home before the summer ends.
A record number of people quit their job last month, most likely for a new opportunity with higher wages and better benefits. This positive trend, along with these lower mortgage rates, should increasingly give some previously priced-out prospective homebuyers the financial wherewithal to resume their home search.”
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Given that mortgage rates are expected to rise over the coming weeks and months, we believe the smart move for most borrowers is going to be to lock in a rate sooner rather than later.
The longer you wait, the more likely it is that you will be locking in a higher rate. It only takes a few minutes or a quick phone call to get started.
The Consumer Price Index for June rose 0.1% from the previous month, putting it at a year over year change of 2.9%. CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% month over month, putting it at 2.3%, year over year. The monthly reading for June is notable in that it’s a six-year high.
Applications filed for U.S. unemployment benefits came in at 214,000 for the week of 7/7/18. That puts the four-week moving average at 223,000. It’s a drop of 18,000 from the previous week.
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Here we go with another week. We’re expecting mortgage rates to continue to stay in a narrow range. Long-term rates are expected to rise so we’re recommending anyone thinking about a purchase or refinance to lock in a rate sooner rather than later. Read on for more details.
The week following the monthly jobs report is historically a quiet one. While it’s true we aren’t going to get flooded with economic data, there are a few key inflation reports scheduled for release that investors will certainly have their eyes on.
It starts on Wednesday with the Producer Prices reading for June. The consensus is an increase of 0.2% across the board, which is healthy but not robust. Anything above or below that mark would have a greater impact on the markets.
After that report, we have the Consumer Prices Index on Thursday. This will be the more interesting release, with the Federal Reserve no doubt paying attention to see if CPI rises by at least 0.2%.
With inflation continuing to move higher, the Fed will remain in a position to raise the nation’s benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate, two more times this week. So what does this mean for the direction of mortgage rates?
Well, it all comes down to what the actual data says. Right now it’s looking like we’ll get some moderately strong readings which would put some upward pressure on mortgage rates, but not a lot.
Mortgage rates have remained in a fairly tight range for the past couple of months now, something that is somewhat of a surprise after the rapid escalation that took place in the first half of the year.
It’s kind of an interesting situation at the moment because rates have seen modest declines in four out of the last six weeks in the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS); however, all signs point toward an uptick for rates toward the end of the year as the Fed follows through with their interest rate hikes.
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Given that mortgage rates are widely expected to rise significantly by the end of the year, we believe that the smart decision for most borrowers is to lock in a rate on a purchase or refinance sooner, rather than later. The longer you wait the more likely it is that you’ll get a higher mortgage rates.
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It’s back to work after the holiday but mortgage rates aren’t really moving around much. The big economic event of the week will happen tomorrow morning when the monthly jobs data for June gets released. We could certainly see mortgage rates move around when that happens so keep an eye out for any market adjustments. Read on for more details.
After being closed on Wednesday for July 4th, the markets are open again. As one would expect, it’s a fairly quiet day, keeping mortgage rates basically unchanged.
Current mortgage rates have bounced around a little this week but are still staying in a narrow range. It was good news for anyone looking to purchase or refinance today as the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) showed that rates declined again. Here are the numbers:
Here is what the Freddie Mac Economic and Housing Research Group had to say about rates this week:
“After a rapid increase throughout most of the spring, mortgage rates have now declined in five of the past six weeks.
The run-up in mortgage rates earlier this year represented not just a rise in risk-free borrowing costs, but for investors, the mortgage spread also rose back to more normal levels by about 20 basis points. What that means for buyers is good news. Mortgage rates may have a little more room to decline over the very short term.
Although the current economic expansion is in its 10th year, residential single-family real estate was initially slow to recover. Now, backed by the demographic tailwind provided by millennials reaching the peak age to buy their first home, the housing market should have some room to grow going forward.”
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Mortgage rates have stayed in a tight range these past couple of months but are still expected to move higher later this year as the Fed brings the nation’s benchmark interest rate up.
If you are thinking about buying a home or refinancing your current mortgage, we strongly recommend that you take advantage of today’s environment and lock in a rate.
The ADP Employment Report showed that 177,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in June. That’s slightly below the 190,000 that analysts had projected. The ADP report is the precursor to the more influence jobs report that will be released tomorrow morning. The two reports don’t always sync up, so it’s hard to make any assumptions about tomorrow’s numbers.
Applications filed for U.S. unemployment benefits for the week of 6/30/18 came in at 231,000. That puts the four-week moving average at 224,500. Claims have been getting higher recently, but analysts are still expecting a strong jobs report tomorrow.
The PMI Services Index came in exactly as expected at 56.5.
The ISM Non-Mfg Index struck a 59.1 in June. That’s basically right in line with what was expected.
The FOMC Minutes from the Fed’s meeting a few weeks ago will be released this afternoon at 2pm. It’s always possible that investors will make some trades based on the details that are revealed.
For the week of 6/29/18:
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We’re expecting mortgage rates to remain in a tight range this week but we could see some slight movement as the economic reports roll out. The most important report for investors will be the monthly jobs report on Friday morning. That report always has the potential to influence where mortgage rates go. Read on for more details.
Here we go with another week. U.S. financial markets are closed for July 4th on Wednesday, but we still have several economic reports out that could influence mortgage rates, including the monthly jobs report for June on Friday morning.
That report is always one of the biggest market moving pieces of economic data each month, and there’s no reason to believe that this time around will be different. Analysts are calling for an increase of 191,000 jobs to the U.S. economy.
That’s a solid reading that would likely put some upward pressure on mortgage rates. Typically, positive economic data signals to investors that they can take on more risk, pushing money out of bonds and into stocks.
Mortgage rates are largely tied to long-term government bond yields, such as the 10-year Treasury yield. When demand for these bonds lessens, yields rise and bring mortgage rates with them.
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What happens this week largely depends on the monthly jobs report on Friday. If the numbers come in as expected, it would signal to the Fed that the U.S. economy is strong enough to follow through with the two more rate increase projected for this year.
That would likely cause investors to move out of bonds and into stocks, bringing mortgage rates higher.
The PMI Manufacturing Index hit a 55.4 in June. That’s slightly above the level that analysts had predicted.
The ISM Mfg Index came in at a 60.2 for June. That’s just above the mark that analysts had expected.
Construction spending for May rose by 0.4%, putting it at 4.5% year over year.
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