Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. Here’s your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Where are mortgage rates going?
French Election and FOMC Minutes Moving Markets
A few weeks back Treasury yields took a hit as the latest poll about the French presidential election caused investors to grow nervous that the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen might come out victorious. Well, the pattern repeated itself yesterday afternoon as treasury yields fell when another poll came out showing Le Pen gaining more traction with the French citizenry.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Feb. 22, 2017).She now trails the independent front-runner Emmanuel Macron by 16%. That number had been closer to 30% just two weeks ago. The possibility that she might win has investors worried about France leaving the E.U., which could prove disastrous for the euro. Thus, anxious investors have moved more into safer assets such as government bonds, pushing yields lower.
There is still a long way to go (the first round of the vote is on April 23, the final run-off is on May 7) before financial market participants hit the panic button, but the situation is real enough to elicit some jitters. It’s kind of a situation where the outcome is unlikely, but it’s potential impact is so great that any momentum towards its fruition is unsettling. Generally, when there is nervousness in the markets that pushes down mortgage rates.
The tide could certainly change today when the Fed releases their minutes from the FOMC meeting three weeks ago. Any indication that the Fed is willing to hike in the upcoming month could send yields and mortgage rates higher. The report gets released at 2:00pm, and its influence will be felt soon after that. The written statement from that meeting was considered to be very dovish, but strangely, nearly all of the fedspeak since that meeting has been on the hawkish side, including several remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Feb. 22, 2017).Just yesterday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams stated that it might make sense to raise rates in March, as did Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker. However, all of this jaw-boning from the Fed is having little-to-no effect on investors, as the Fed Fund futures for March have been holding steady at 17.7% chance of a rate hike for a while now. If the minutes do show that there was more debate than previously thought, it will be interesting to see if the Fed Fund futures ticks higher.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates have basically been flat this week. With the potential for rates to swing once the FOMC minutes get released at 2:00pm, borrowers should make sure to check in and see what happened. Depending on the results, it might make sense to lock in a rate.
Today’s economic data:
Existing Home Sales
According to data out from the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales in the U.S. surged 5.690 million in January, which is a 10-year high. That’s a 3.3% rise from the previous month’s reading of 5.490 million. Year over year existing home sales have increased by 3.8%.
Fedspeak
Fed Governor Jerome Powell will speak today at 1:00pm.
FOMC Minutes
The minutes from the Fed’s meeting three weeks ago will be released today at 2:00pm.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Markets Closed for President’s Day.
Tuesday:
- Fedspeak
- PMI Manufacturing Index
Wednesday:
- Existing Home Sales
- Fedspeak
- FOMC Minutes
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- Fedspeak
- EIA Petroleum Status
Friday:
- New Home Sales
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2kZO0go
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