Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Mortgage rates continue to fall
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note (the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are headed) has fallen past 2.30% again this morning. That’s the second time since Friday it’s gone below that mark–something that hasn’t been done since November.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Apr. 12, 2017).Since the election, the 10-year yield has fluctuated between 2.30%-2.60%. The fact that they’ve dipped below 2.30% in two out of the last three sessions is a noteworthy event. Mortgage rates typically follow in the footsteps of the 10-year yield, so rates are most likely heading down to 2017 lows today.
What is causing the drop?
In one word: uncertainty. From the situation in Syria, the French election, tensions with Russia, and North Korea’s nuclear weapons testing, there are a lot of uncertainties out there. Investors don’t like making major moves in the equities market when there isn’t a clear path ahead. Instead, they tend to move into safer assets like government bonds.
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Basic economics tells us that when demand goes up, prices rise and yields fall, as investors don’t need to be drawn into the market by a higher yield. Mortgage backed securities share a similar low-risk value as bonds, and therefore compete for the same investors. That’s part of the reason why the yield on the 10-year Treasury note and mortgages rates tend to move in the same direction.
How long will rates stay this low?
On Friday, the bond market reversed the sell-off and finished the day with yields above where they started. Today’s descent wasn’t an immediate shock event, making it more likely that it will sustain itself. With no significant economic reports out the rest of the day, the pressure is on geo-political events to reassure investors that the equities market isn’t a poor play. The way things have been going, it doesn’t seem likely that will happen. That means the next threat to rising rates would come with tomorrow mornings round of economic data.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates are heading into uncharted territory for 2017. That’s great news for anyone looking to lock in a low rate on a purchase or a refinance.
It only takes a few minutes to fill out some information and get a personalized rate quote on our website, or a quick phone call to one of our experienced mortgage specialists to get started.
Today’s economic data:
Import and Export Prices
Import prices fell 0.2% in March. That puts them at 4.2% year over year. Export prices rose 0.2%, bringing them up to 3.6% year over year.
EIA Petroleum Status Report
For the week of 4/7/17:
- Crude oil: -2.2 M barrels
- Gasoline: -3.0 M barrels
- Distillates: -2.2 M barrels
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- JOLTS
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- Import and Export Prices
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- PPI-FD
- Consumer Sentiment
Friday:
- Good Friday: Banks Open, Markets Closed
- Consumer Price Index
- Retail Sales
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2p60lFO
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