Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Fed raises rates
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee concluded their two day meeting yesterday with a written statement that declared they raised the target range for the federal funds rate–by a quarter point to 1.00%-1.25%.
“Realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation expectations” were cited as reasons for the rate increase.
The statement did acknowledge that inflation is expected to remain somewhat below 2% (the Fed’s target) in the near term, but the committee believes it will eventually stabilize.
Also of note in the statement was the line that the Fed expects to begin “implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as expected.” If that happens, it’s likely there will be upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen was on the defensive for most of the post-meeting press conference, fielding several questions about inflation expectations and the current rate hike path.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Jun. 15, 2017).
There is somewhat of a disconnect between the Fed and the market, with the latter believing the Fed will take longer to normalize rates than they claim.
Ahead of the Fed’s decision, some poor inflation data had sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury note (which is the best indicator of where mortgage rates are heading) tumbling down over ten basis points to levels not seen since November.
The 10-year yield has since moved higher but still remains down on the week at some of the lowest levels we’ve seen in months.
Rates inch higher in Freddie Mac PMMS
The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey got released this morning, as it does every Thursday at 10am. Today it showed that rates nudged higher. Here are the numbers:
- The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage moved up two basis points to 3.91% (0.5 points)
- The average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage ticked up two basis points to 3.18% (0.5 points)
- The average rate on a 5/1-year adjustable rate mortgage went up four basis points to 3.15% (0.5 points)
While rates did tick up, most of the data on for the survey is collected early on in the week, and would therefore not have yesterday’s massive move into the bond market priced into it.
It’s true that traders have since moved back out into stocks after the upbeat Fed meeting, but bond yields remain lower on the week. Nonetheless, the average rate on the 30-year fixed has now stayed under 4% for four straight weeks. That’s great news for borrowers.
What does this mean for me?
Lock now while rates are low
Mortgage rates are hovering near seven-month lows right now. There’s really no telling when they will rise, so anyone on the fence about a purchase or refinance should act now.
To get the most accurate idea of what kind of rate we could offer, you should fill out our short form and get a personalized rate quote. Or, if you’d rather talk to someone, you can always call one of our experienced mortgage specialists.
They can walk you through the same process, clarifying any questions you may have, and let you know what your custom rate quote is.
Today’s economic data:
Jobless Claims
Applications for US unemployment benefits fell 8,000 to 237,000 for the week of 6/10/17. The four-week moving average, however, inched up 1,000 to 243,000.
Philly Fed Business Outlook
The Philly fed general business conditions index continues to run hot, this time with a 27.6 for June. That’s down from the prior reading of 38.8, but is still a very solid reading.
Empire State Mfg
The Empire State general business conditions also put up a very respectable number for June with a 19.8. That’s quite the leap up from its prior reading of -1.0. The report comes as a surprise to analysts who expected a 5.0.
Import and Export Prices
Import prices fell 0.3% in May, bringing them down to 2.1% year over year. Export prices also fell, dropping 0.7%, putting them at 1.4% year over year.
Housing Market Index
The housing market index came in at 67 for June. That’s just under the consensus for 70 and the prior revised reading of 69. It’s a good reading which points toward optimism from home builders.
Industrial Production
Industrial production was unchanged month over month in May. Manufacturing fell 0.4%, and the capacity utilization rate ticked down one tenth of a percentage point to 76.6%.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Nothing
Tuesday:
- FOMC Meeting Begins
- PPI-FD
Wednesday:
- Consumer Price Index
- Retail Sales
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- FOMC Meeting Ends
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- Philly Fed Business Outlook
- Empire State Mfg
- Import and Export Prices
- Housing Market Index
- Industrial Production
Friday:
- Housing Starts
- Consumer Sentiment
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2tqRE7D
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