The markets are waiting to hear Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen give a keynote speech today at a conference in Cleveland, Ohio. Investors are hoping for more clues about an upcoming rate hike decision, but there’s no guarantee they will get any. Depending on what Yellen ends up saying, we could see rates adjust this afternoon. Read on for more details.
Market Outlook 9.25.17 from Total Mortgage on Vimeo.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Rates holding ahead of Yellen speech
Yesterday the markets reacted to mixed results in the German election as well as geopolitical concerns over statements out of North Korea. That created a slight risk-off scenario where investors moved out of stocks and into the perceived safety of government bonds.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Sep. 26, 2017).
With an increase in demand, Treasury prices rose and yields fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note (the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are headed) fell about three basis points.
Today, yields are little changed as financial market participants wait to hear from a handful of Fed officials, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 12:45pm. Yellen is giving the keynote speech at the NABE Annual Meeting to Assess Prospects for Growth in Shifting Global Economy, in Cleveland, Ohio.
There will also be an audience Q and A. While investors will certainly be tuning in to see what she has to say, there are no guarantees that anything of import will be stated.
We’re fresh off of an FOMC press conference and it’s quite possible that Yellen will refrain from making any further comments. Still, with a December rate hike firmly back on the table (about a 78% chance of happening according to the CME Group’s Fed Funds futures), the markets are looking for even the slightest of hints to solidify their certainty about that decision.
What does this mean for mortgage rates? In general, mortgage rates rise when the economic is performing well, so if the Fed Chair comes out further championing that the economy is strong enough for further rate hikes–that would almost certainly put upward pressure on mortgage rates.
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What does this mean for me?
Lock now while rates are low
Mortgage rates are still not far off of 2017 lows. However, it is looking more and more likely that rates are going to move higher over the coming weeks. That means that borrowers who act sooner rather than later are likely to get the better deal.
To get the most accurate idea of what kind of rate we could offer, you should fill out our short form and get a personalized rate quote. Or, if you’d rather talk to someone, you can always call one of our experienced mortgage specialists.
They can walk you through the same process, clarifying any questions you may have, and let you know what your custom rate quote is.
Today’s economic data:
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
The 20-city seasonally adjusted index rose 0.3% in July. The 20-city non-seasonally adjusted index rose 0.7% in July, putting it at a year over year change of 5.8%.
Fedspeak
- Chicago Fed President Charles Evans at 9:30am
- Fed Governor Lael Brainard at 10:30am
- Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic at 12:30pm
- Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 12:45pm
New Home Sales
New home sales for August came in at an annualized rate of 560,00. That’s disappointing given that analysts had expected a pickup from the previous reading of 571,000 to 583,000.
Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence came in at a 119.8 for September. That’s slightly below the consensus for 120.2. There’s no denying that the recent hurricanes played a part in the decline, but the good news is that it’s still a strong reading.
Richmond Fed Mfg Index
The Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at a very solid 19. That’s well above the 13 that was expected.
Fun Fact of the Day:
When the mortgage industry first kicked off in America, most down payment requirements were 80%, and the typical term for a loan was between three and five years.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
- Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
Tuesday:
- S&P Case-Shiller HPI
- Fedspeak
- New Home Sales
- Consumer Confidence
- Richmond Fed Mfg Index
Wednesday:
- Durable Goods Orders
- Pending Home Sales
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- GDP
- International Trade in Goods
- Jobless Claims
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
- Chicago PMI
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2wRJStB
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