Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Investors are still staying away from long-term government bonds, which is driving prices down and yields up. The yield on the U.S. 10-year treasury note is currently trading at 2.23%, which is nearly forty basis points above where it was early last Wednesday. That puts it very close to the 52-week high of 2.35% from last January. The yield on the 10-year treasury note is the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are headed, so unfortunately for borrowers it means that rates have surged higher. We’ll find out just how badly the damage is on Thursday when the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey gets released at 10am.
What does this mean for me?
It’s a tricky time to be a borrower. You have to ask yourself: Do I wait to see if the stock market rally will reverse itself, pushing mortgage rates back down, or do I lock now because rates are only going up? That’s been the dilemma ever since rates began to skyrocket last Wednesday, and there are plenty of borrowers on both sides. So far, those who have locked in a low rate while they can are on the winning side.
In the end, the decision comes down to your risk appetite. If you can’t stomach, financially or emotionally, waiting to see if rates will drop down–then don’t wait. In the grand scheme of things, mortgage rates are still very low. We all want to get the best deal possible, but if you step back and look at rates from a historical perspective, we’re still at bargain levels.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Retail Sales
After an upwardly revised September reading, retail sales improved by a better than expected 0.8% in October. Auto sales have been performing exceptionally well the past two months, with gains of 1.9% and 1.1%. Retail sales less autos also came in at 0.8%, while retail sales less autos and gas came in at 0.6%. Overall there is a lot of strength in this report, further bolstering revision estimates for third-quarter GDP and expectations for a December rate hike.
Fedspeak
There’s been a decent amount of fedspeak since the presidential election, and so far, nothing shocking has been said. With president-elect Trump being such a heavy fed-critic during his campaign trail, it wasn’t quite clear how fed officials would react to his victory. Of course, fed officials must be somewhat pleased that the markets decided to rally based on expectations for fiscal stimulus. They’ve been wanting to raise rates for a while now, and the recent rally is only raising expectations for a quarter point increase in December.
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said this morning that:
“Absent significant negative economic news over the next month, the market’s assessment of the likelihood of tightening in December seems plausible….”I would much prefer that tightening be gradual, and that policymakers try to avoid circumstances in which we need to tighten more quickly.”
Right now the Fed Fund futures is giving the December meeting a 90.6% chance of a quarter point rate hike. That’s a significant increase since early last week.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- Retail Sales
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- PPI-FD
- Industrial Production
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Fedspeak
Thursday:
- Consumer Price Index
- Housing Starts
- Jobless Claims
- Philly Fed Business Outlook
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2fUuIL8
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