Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Donald Trump win causes bond sell-off (for now)
Well it seems that whatever reservations voters had about Donald J. Trump, they had more about Hillary Clinton. It’s a situation that few saw coming, and one that most financial market participants had hoped to avoid. Typically in times of uncertainty and turmoil, investors seek the safe haven of long-term government bonds. That did initially happen as a Trump victory became more likely, however, as investors began to more fully digest the results they started to sell off bonds due to expectations for significant fiscal spending under their new republican leader.
The yield on the 10-year treasury note is currently 1.95%, which is 9 basis points above where it closed yesterday. Mortgage rates have a strong tendency to follow in the footsteps of the 10-year yield, so it’s likely that they’re headed higher today. We’re still very early into this thing, though, with plenty of time for investors to change their minds. Even today, it wouldn’t surprise me if the 10-year yield reversed course and shot back below where it closed yesterday.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
December rate hike
A win for Hillary Clinton was seen as a done deal for the December rate hike. With a Trump victory, the done deal is gone and we’re left with worse odds than before. Surprisingly, though, the odds haven’t really tumbled all that much. Yesterday the fed fund futures were showing a 76.3% chance; right now they’re showing 71.5%. Either way, the conversations happening at the Fed will no doubt be taking a different tone in the coming weeks.
Aside from the upcoming rate hike decision, Trump’s victory will certainly re-shuffle the deck at the FOMC. Trump was very vocal during the campaign trail about his dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Janet Yellen. He didn’t mince words, stating plainly that he would not re-appoint her when her term is up in February 2018. Many analysts are now speculating on whether or not she will resign before then.
What does this mean for me?
We’re in the midst of a shocking upset, the results of which won’t fully unfold for quite some time. What we can say is that long-term government bond yields are rising, taking mortgage rates with them. Historically speaking, rates are still very low, so there’s no need to panic. I still think that there is the possibility that things will settle down today or tomorrow and the 10-year yield and rates will decline. If I were on the market for a purchase or refinance, I think it’s worth waiting a few days to see if rates ease, but if they don’t, then I would try to lock in a rate as soon as possible.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
EIA Petroleum Status Report
For the week of 11/4:
- Crude oil: 14.4 M barrels
- Gasoline: -2.2 M barrels
- Distillates: -1.8 M barrels
Fedspeak
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks today at 1:30pm.
- San Francisco Fed President John Williams will talk tonight at 9:00pm.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- US Presidential Election
- Fedspeak
- JOLTS
Wednesday:
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Fedspeak
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog https://www.totalmortgage.com/blog/current-mortgage-rates/current-mortgage-rates-for-wednesday-november-9-2016/34415
No comments:
Post a Comment