Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic news out today, but first, your mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Freddie Mac PMMS has rates up
The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey revealed this morning that mortgage rates went up this week. The average rate on a 30-year fixed now sits at 3.64% (0.5 points). That’s six basis points higher from where it was last week. The average rate on a 15-year fixed is at 2.89% (0.5 points), and the average rate on a 5-year ARM is 2.87% (0.5 points).
All of the hawkish Fedspeak the past couple weeks finally got priced into the PMMS, which is why we’re seeing rates higher. When you step back and look at things from a historical perspective, though, we can see that rates are still at very low levels. The 30-year fixed is only 7 basis points above 2016 lows, and 33 basis points above all-time lows.
Looking toward tomorrow, we get the second estimate for first-quarter GDP at 8:30 AM and Janet Yellen will speak at 1:15 PM. There is a definite risk for mortgage rates if GDP comes in strong and Janet Yellen reiterates the hawkish remarks of her colleagues.
Fed Fund futures
The Fed fund futures, which express the market’s belief in monetary policy adjustment, is currently showing a 28% chance of a June rate hike. That’s a few points below where it’s been all week. July, September, November, and December are at 54%, 65%, 68%, and 80%, respectively.
10-year yield falls lower
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is trending lower this morning. It’s currently down 2 basis points to 1.85%. Mortgage rates typically follow the lead of the 10-year yield.
What does this mean for me?
Rates went up but they’re still low. It still makes sense to pick up the phone and see if you could save on your monthly payments with a refinance. It’s also still a good time to lock in a low rate on a long-term mortgage.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Durable goods orders are mixed
New orders are up 3.4% in April. That’s stronger than the 0.3% rise that was expected. Year over year, new orders are up 1.9%. Core capital goods came in at -0.8% in April and are at -5.0%, year over year.
Weekly jobless claims are down
Jobless claims are down to 268,000 this week, which is below the consensus for 275,000. That’s a drop of 10,000 from the previous reading.
Treasury auctions
There will be a 7-year note auction today at 1:00 PM.
Fedspeak
Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will speak at 12:15 PM today.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
- Treasury auctions
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- New Home Sales
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
- Treasury auctions
Wednesday:
- International Trade in Goods
- EIA Petroleum Status report
- Treasury auctions
Thursday:
- Durable Goods Orders
- Weekly Jobless Claims
- Treasury auctions
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- GDP
- Consumer Sentiment
- Janet Yellen speaks
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/1WWyEKL
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