Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic news out today, but first, your mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Mortgage rates moved down to 2016 lows last week. This week, they’re under some slight upward pressure but haven’t spiked a considerable amount. The CPI report that came out today is showing a rise in inflation, and while it doesn’t seem like it’s enough to have much of an effect on the June rate hike decision, it is influencing the market’s feelings toward September, November, and December. December now has a slightly greater than 50% chance, and September and November are right below 50%.
The FOMC minutes from the April meeting comes out tomorrow, and will possibly shed some light on how things are shaking out at the Fed. There’s been plenty of Fedspeak since that meeting but you never know what the minutes will reveal.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note climbed up to 1.76% yesterday and has since fallen to 1.75%. Mortgage rates have a tendency to follow the lead of the 10-year yield.
Don’t wait for rates to rise. Start your mortgage process now.
What does this mean for me?
There’s no denying it: mortgage rates are incredibly low. That’s good news for homebuyers. Now is a great time to lock in a low rate on a long-term mortgage. It’s also a great time to refinance at a lower rate and save money on your monthly payments. While I don’t think you need to grab your wallet and rush out the door to a lender, I do think that it’s prudent to act sooner rather than later. Mortgage rates are fickle and there’s really no telling when they’ll spike back up, which I believe is more likely than rates moving lower.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Consumer Price Index is up… barely
According to data out from the Labor Department this morning, month over month, the consumer price index rose 0.4% in April. That’s the fastest monthly gain in over 3 years. Year over year, the index is up 1.1%. CPI less food and energy is up 0.1%, month over month, and 2.1% year over year. That’s just a smidgeon over the Fed’s target of 2%.
Higher oil prices played a major role in the rise. Apparel prices have been struggling all year and continue to do so. Everyone is closely watching wages, which have also been dragging along all year, and this report is no different. The report is slightly stronger than anticipated (0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus), but it’s by no means stellar and is unlikely to woo financial market participants and policy makers into believing that a June rate hike is back on the table (if it ever was).
Housing Starts post moderate gains
Housing starts came in at 1.172 M in April, above the consensus of 1.135 M. That’s 6.6% higher than the previous reading. Permits are at 1.116 M, below the 1.130 M that was expected, but 3.6% higher than the last reading.
Industrial Production
Industrial production moved 0.7% higher in April, led by an increase in utility output. That’s a decent bid up from the 0.2% that was expected.
Don’t wait for rates to rise. Start your mortgage process now.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Tuesday:
- Consumer Price Index
- Housing Starts
- Industrial Production
Wednesday:
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- FOMC Minutes
Thursday:
- Weekly Jobless Claims
- Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey
Friday:
- Existing Home Sales
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/1YyWf1c
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