Happy Friday, and welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
On Thursday, the Freddie Mac Private Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) showed that rates rose from their positions last week.week. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage went up five basis points to 3.47% (0.6 points); the average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose four basis points to 2.76%; and the average rate on a 5-year ARM ticked up two basis points to 2.82% (0.4 points).
The news wasn’t surprising given that treasury yields have climbed up nearly twenty basis points over the past two weeks. Financial market participants keep on pricing in a December rate hike more and more, which will only send rates higher.
The Fed Fund futures is currently giving December about a 65% chance of a rate hike. It’s definitely not a given, and there’s plenty of economic data out before then, but momentum seems to be in favor of hiking.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates moved higher this week. They’re definitely still at very accommodative levels, but there’s no telling how long they will stay that way for. My recommendation to anyone looking to purchase a home or refinance their current mortgage is to act sooner rather than later.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
PPI-FD is up but still soft
Data from the Labor Department is showing that producer prices rose 0.3% in September. Economists were predicting growth between 0.1% and 0.3%. That puts the year over year change at 0.7%. Prices minus food and energy came in at 0.2% month over month, and 1.2% year over year. Prices minus food, energy, and trade services rose 0.3% month over month, and 1.5% year over year. Overall, the report shows possible strength in the future, but there is still enough weakness that the Fed will have to consider when thinking about whether to raise rates or not.
Retail Sales are up
After an August filled with negative readings, retail sales rose across the board in September. The headline reading saw a gain of 0.6%. While retail sales less autos rose 0.5%, and retail sales less autos and gas ticked up 0.3%. Fed hawks will say that this report reflects a strong labor market, and tips the scales towards a December rate hike.
Consumer Sentiment is down
Consumer sentiment dropped a heavy 3.3 points down to 87.9 for October. That’s the lowest reading since last September. We’re quickly moving toward key holiday shopping months, and this report doesn’t create the image that it will be a strong one for shoppers.
Fedspeak
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren spoke this morning at 7:45am, stating that he currently feels a December rate hike is more likely than not to happen, given a strong labor market and inflation near 2%.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak today at 12:00pm.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak today at 12:30pm.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- Nothing
Wednesday:
- Fedspeak
- JOLTS
- FOMC Minutes
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- PPI-FD
- Retail Sales
- Consumer Sentiment
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2eAcmyO
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