Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
A very solid GDP report is keeping long term treasury yields up around six month highs this morning. The yield on the 10-year treasury note is currently trading around 1.85%. That’s a height not reached since May. Just one month it was sitting below 1.60%.
Typically, mortgage rates follow in the footsteps of the 10-year yield. This week wasn’t quite the norm, though, with the Freddie Mac Private Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) showing on Thursday that mortgage rates declined from the previous week’s positions.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell five basis points down to 3.47% (0.6 points); the average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage slid one basis point to 2.78% (0.5 points); and the average rate on a 5-year ARM ticked down one basis point to 2.84% (0.4 points).
As with nearly every economic report, the PMMS is a lagging indicator. Most of the data for the report is collected early on in the week, and it certainly isn’t reflecting the strength we are seeing right now after the GDP report. While mortgage rates may have dipped down in the PMMS, I’d be willing to bet that they have climbed back above 3.50% right now. All things considered, that’s still very low.
The Fed Fund futures is staying strong as we head into the weekend, giving the Fed’s December meeting a 78.5% chance of a rate hike. With Hillary Clinton looking more and more likely to win the presidential election, it seems that Janet Yellen will keep her job, which also plays into the December rate hike scenario. It’s always important to understand that while the Federal Funds rate does influence mortgage rates, a quarter point raise is not going to send them surging higher.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates went on an up and down roller coaster ride this week and are heading into the weekend just about where they were last weekend. That’s not necessarily a bad thing for borrowers, as rates are still only around twenty basis points from all-time lows. If you’re on the market for a purchase or a refinance, right now is a good time to do it, but I would recommend acting sooner rather than later.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
GDP is best in over two years
The first estimate of third quarter GDP came in at a surprisingly robust 2.9%. For an economy that grew just over 1% in the first two quarters, this report is a serious improvement. An increase in exports and inventories helped drive the headline reading up. The Fed will definitely be pleased with this report. Next up on their radar is the October jobs report, which gets released next Friday.
Consumer Sentiment
Consumer sentiment is at 87.2 for October. That’s the lowest level since October 2014. This report certainly doesn’t align with the GDP report.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- S&P Case-Shiller HPI
- Consumer Confidence
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- International Trade
- New Home Sales
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- Durable Goods Orders
- Jobless Claims
Friday:
- GDP
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2eZpd9I
No comments:
Post a Comment