Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Treasury yields are on the rise this morning for the fourth day in a row. Yesterday it was remarks from European Central Bank officials about tapering off their bond-buying program ahead of schedule that pushed yields higher, and today it’s a much stronger than expected ISM non-mfg report. The yield on the U.S. 10-year treasury note (which has long been the best market indicator of where mortgage rates will go) is currently at 1.72%. That’s nearly twenty basis points from where it was on Friday morning, and just a few basis points shy of a three month high.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Unfortunately, that does mean that mortgage rates are moving higher. Tomorrow morning the Freddie Mac Private Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) gets released, and right now it’s looking like mortgage rates will be significantly higher than where they were last week. The silver lining here is that rates were only one basis point above 2016 lows last week, so we’re not going to see anything that isn’t historically low.
Of course, the upward trajectory we’re presently seeing could change on Friday when the jobs report comes out. Always the biggest market mover, the jobs report is under some pressure after a poor reading in the ADP employment report today. An overly soft report would almost certainly send treasury yields and mortgage rates alike back down from whence they came.
Everyone is still trying to crack the rate hike code, and while almost no one truly believes November is a live meeting, Fed officials cannot keep themselves from saying that it is. A rate hike less than a week before the presidential election? I don’t think so. Financial market participants largely agree, with the Fed Fund futures giving the November meeting a 15.5% chance at a rate hike. December has been the clear candidate for many months now, and it sits right now with over a 60% chance at a rate hike. Just as with treasury yields and mortgage rates, these numbers could change on Friday.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates are on the rise again. That’s never a phrase that borrowers want to hear, but we’re still a ways away from climbing out of the low rate environment. That means that today’s borrowers still have opportunities that the vast majority of past borrowers haven’t. So if you’re looking to lock in a low rate on a refinance or purchase, you’ve picked a good time to do it.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
ADP Employment Report
The ADP Employment Report came in at a very soft 154,000 for September. That number will certainly call into question current expectations for 170,000 in the jobs report on Friday.
International Trade
The U.S. trade deficit grew to $40.7 billion in August. That’s $1.2 billion more than the previous reading.
ISM Non-Mfg Index
The ISM non-mfg index hit the markets with a shocker this morning by posting a 57.1. That’s up 5.7 points from the the previous reading of 51.4. This report comes as somewhat of a counter to the soft ADP employment report.
EIA Petroleum Status Report
For the week of 9/30:
- Crude oil: -3.0 M barrels
- Gasoline: 0.2 M barrels
- Distillates: -2.4 M barrels
Fedspeak
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will give opening remarks at a conference this morning.
- Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker will speak today at Marshall University.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- ISM Mfg Index
Tuesday:
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- ADP Employment Report
- ISM Non-Mfg Index
- International Trade
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Fedspeak
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- Long-Term Bond Announcements
Friday:
- Employment Situation
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2dJR4ds
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