Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Mortgage rates are heading lower to start the week
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note (the best market indicator we have of where mortgage rates are heading) is down almost five basis points this morning (one basis point = 0.01). The main culprit this morning for the drop is a poor showing in the Empire State Manufacturing Index. The headline reading for that report fell into the negative column for the first time since October.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (May. 15, 2017).
The drop was largely unexpected by financial market participants. With little economic data out today, more emphasis was placed on that report, giving it the power to drag down Treasury yields. Mortgage backed securities compete for similar investors so we’re also seeing a decline those yields as well, which means mortgage rates are moving lower today.
It’s kind of an interesting situation right now where all of the major stock market indices are trading higher this morning (based off the talk about increased output for oil), but Treasury yields and mortgage rates are declining. Generally, when the stock market is doing well, mortgage rates are rising. Of course, the economy is a dazzlingly complex system, so typical trends are certainly not hard and fast rules, as we’re seeing today.
We are officially less than one month away from the Federal Reserve’s June FOMC meeting. The CME Group’s fed fund futures have the probability of a quarter point increase at about 74%. While that’s lower from the 83% we saw last week at this time, it’s still high enough that few people are doubting that it will happen.
It’s true that there is plenty of economic data to be released between now and then (including the monthly jobs report for May), but unless things decide to take a serious turn for the worst, the target for federal funds rate will be bumped up to 1.00%-1.25%.
What does this mean for me?
Great day to lock a rate
Mortgage rates moved lower on Friday after disappointing economic data. That pattern is repeating itself today, which is good news for borrowers. It doesn’t matter if you’re looking to refinance your current mortgage or purchase a new home–the current rate environment is favorable to everyone. There are always personal factors that play into the mix, but many borrowers will find right now a great time to lock in a rate.
To get the most accurate idea of what kind of rate we could offer, you should fill out our short form and get a personalized rate quote. If you’d rather talk to someone, you can always call one of our experienced mortgage specialists.
They can walk you through the same process, clarifying any questions you may have, and let you know what your custom rate quote is.
Today’s economic data:
Empire State Mfg Survey
The surprisingly strong string of reports has come to an end, with the general business conditions index in the Empire State Mfg Survey coming in at -1.0 for May. That’s well below the consensus for 8.0. New orders fell to -4.4, and unfilled orders dropped to -3.7. This is the first negative reading since October.
Housing Market Index
The housing market index for May is at 70. That’s two points above both the consensus and the prior reading. It’s a strong report, and a good sign for the housing market.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Empire State Mfg Survey
- Housing Market Index
Tuesday:
- Housing Starts
- Industrial Production
Wednesday:
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2pCqIo1
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