Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice. Don’t feel like reading? Check out our market outlook series.
Market Outlook 5.1.17 from Total Mortgage on Vimeo.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Fed Meeting Begins
The Federal Reserve’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting begins today. The markets are in wait and see mode ahead of the concluding statement tomorrow, so mortgage rates aren’t really moving one way or another right now. That trend is likely to continue until tomorrow afternoon.
No one really knows what to expect from the Fed statement, other than the fact that they aren’t going to raise the federal funds rate. From recent economic slowdown in Q1, to President Trump’s lack of fiscal stimulus in his first 100 days, to the Fed’s plans to shrink its balance sheet, there are many questions to ask and many different ways the statement could go.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (May. 2, 2017).
With no post-meeting press conference from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, the written statement is all financial market participants have to go off of for clues about upcoming meetings. If we work off of recent fedspeak, it does seem that a likely scenario could be for the Fed to remain upbeat and confident about the economy, brushing off Q1 weakness as a temporary event.
Investors would take that type of language to mean that a June rate hike is still on the table, but it’s doubtful that would buy in hook, line, and sinker. There’s no denying all of the soft data that’s been coming out recently, and investors will be hesitant to make too large a bet on a rate hike in June. Right now, the CME Group’s Fed Fund futures has the chances of a June increase at 63.2%.
Mortgage rates are still near 2017 lows. See how low your rate could be.
That seems like an accurate estimation at this point. It would stand to reason that the bigger opportunity for a market sentiment shift is the Monthly Jobs Report on Friday. That’s consistently one of the most significant economic reports every month, and if it comes in stronger than expectations, we could see the odds of a June rate hike shoot up.
Will that happen? It’s hard to say. Economists aren’t calling for it at the moment, but it’s a report that isn’t shy about surprises. In general, economic data that points to a strong economy puts upward pressure on mortgage rates. That means that if the Fed comes out really hawkish, and the Monthly Jobs Report points toward a robust labor market, mortgage rates could finish the week up higher.
What does this mean for me?
Depends on your appetite for risk
Whenever we get into situations where there are some big events–with uncertain outcomes–on the horizon, whatever you decide to do has a lot to do with your own unique circumstances and personality as a borrower. The safe play would definitely be to lock in a rate today. It seems as though mortgage rates are poised to move up slightly as we head into the weekend.
However, there is always the possibility that rates fall. If you’re not in a rush and have the luxury of being able to deal with a moderate rise in rates, then maybe it makes sense for you to roll the dice and see if they dip back down.
If you want to get the most accurate idea of what kind of rate we could offer, you should fill out our short form and get a personalized rate quote. If you’d rather talk to someone, you can always call one of our experienced mortgage specialists.
Today’s economic data:
FOMC Meeting Begins
- FOMC meeting starts today and ends tomorrow with a written statement at 2:00pm.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
- PMI Manufacturing Index
- ISM manufacturing Index
- Construction Spending
Tuesday:
- FOMC Meeting Begins
Wednesday:
- FOMC Meeting Ends
- ADP Employment Report
- ISM Non Manufacturing Report
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- International Trade
- Jobless Claims
Friday:
- Employment Situation
- Fedsoeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2pTY9lZ
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