Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Where are mortgage rates going?
The slow climb continues
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note (the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are going) is currently up two basis points from yesterday’s close. That puts it at 2.407%. This is the first time it’s been over 2.4% since late March. It’s a significant milestone and means that mortgage rates are trending higher again. That’s right in line with expectations for a gradual ascent as the week progresses.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (May. 9, 2017).
The biggest chance for a spike comes later in the week with the PPI-FD report on Thursday, and then the Consumer Prices Index and Retails Sales on Friday. We also hear from several Fed officials. We’re a little over a month away from the June meeting, and it seems as though a quarter point rate hike is very much on the table.
However, yesterday we did hear from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard who stated that he thought rates should stay lower for a while longer. His comments were in contrast to those made by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who felt that further tightening is necessary. The general sentiment is that more Fed officials are on the pro-rate hike side at the moment, but it’s entirely possible for voting members to shift their position.
Just last week the NY Fed came out and said that they lowered their year over year GDP expectations from 2.33% to 1.8% for the second quarter of 2017. That’s startlingly lower than the Atlanta Fed’s forecast for 4.3%. The Fed dismissed a slow first quarter in their FOMC statement last week as “transitory”, but that certainly puts pressure on the economy to pick things up in the second quarter.
If GDP growth remains under 2% as we head into the June meeting, it would make the case that much more difficult for the rate hike hawks. The CME Group’s fed fund futures is showing an 87.7% chance of a rate hike in June, but there’s still plenty of data to come out. As long as these lowball projections don’t come true, a rate hike will likely happen, but it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on.
What does this mean for me?
Those who act soon are likely to get a better deal
Mortgage rates are moving higher. That means that anyone who takes action now will likely get a better rate. There are still plenty of personal factors to consider, but if you’re on the fence on a purchase or refinance, you should seriously consider locking in a rate.
To get the most accurate idea of what kind of rate we could offer, you should fill out our short form and get a personalized rate quote. If you’d rather talk to someone, you can always call one of our experienced mortgage specialists.
They can walk you through the same process, clarifying any questions you may have, and let you know what your custom rate quote is.
Today’s economic data:
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
The NFIB index is down two tenths to 104.5 for April.
JOLTS
Job openings are at 5.743 M for March. That’s up from the prior revised reading of 5.682 M.
Fedspeak
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari at 9:00am
- Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren at 1:00pm
- Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan at 4:15pm
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
- JOLTS
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- Import and Export Prices
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Fedspeak
- 10-Yr Note Auction
- Treasury Budget
Thursday:
- Fedspeak
- Jobless Claims
- PPI-FD
Friday:
- Consumer Price Index
- Retail Sales
- Fedspeak
- Business Inventories
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2qW3jds
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