Happy Friday, and welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Treasury yields are on the rise this morning after a strong retail spending report was released. The 10-year yield started the week only several points above all-time lows at around 1.38%, but has since climbed up and now stands at 1.58%. That puts it at it’s highest level in three weeks. Mortgage rates have a tendency to trail behind the 10-year yield, so for now, it seems that rates are on the rise.
Freddie Mac PMMS has rates mostly up
The Freddie Mac Private Mortgage Market Survey came out yesterday, and it showed that mortgage rates, for the most part, edged up higher this week. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage ticked up 1 basis point to 3.42% (0.5 points); the average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was the only rate that moved lower, doing so by 2 basis points to 2.72% (0.5 points); and the average rate on a 5-year ARM went up 8 basis points to 2.76% (0.4 points). It’s always worth noting that data for the PMMS gets collected early in the week, meaning that rates are probably a few basis points higher than what the report says.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Sean Becketti, the Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, made these remarks about mortgage rates this week:
“We describe the last few weeks as A Tale of Two Rates. Immediately following the Brexit vote, U.S. Treasury yields plummeted to all-time lows. This week, markets stabilized and the 10-year Treasury yield rebounded sharply. In contrast, the 30-year mortgage rate declined after the Brexit vote, but only by half as much as the 10-year Treasury yield. This week, the 30-year fixed rate barely budged, rising just one basis point to 3.42 percent. This pattern suggests that mortgage rates are likely to remain low throughout the summer.”
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Fed Fund futures
The Fed Fund futures are still showing that the odds are in favor of zero rate hikes in 2016. Economic data has been improving, but we’ve still got a ways to go before any of the meetings get taken seriously. July has long been discounted, and September and November basically have no shot with a 13.3% chance. Aside from the fact it’s unlikely enough data will be released to be thoroughly convincing, those meetings are too close to election time, and are therefore poor candidates for a change in monetary policy. That brings us to December, which currently has a 37.9% chance of a rate hike. It’s been ticking up and up recently, and it’s not unfathomable that the Fed would try and squeeze one rate hike in just to save face. We’re still many months away from that meeting, though, and any speculation on what will happen then should be taken with a grain of salt.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates are back on the rise, but all things considered, are still at very appealing levels. It might not be as good as it was the past couple of weeks, but I think there are still opportunities out there to be had. Whether you’re refinancing your current mortgage or purchasing a home, I think you’re better off acting sooner rather than later.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Consumer Price Index
The consumer price index only rose by 0.2% in June. Year over year it’s up 1.0%, which is actually down from the prior revised of 1.1%. Less food and gas, CPI also rose 0.2%, month over month. Year over year, CPI less food and gas is at 2.3%.
Retail Sales
Retail sales went up 0.6% in June. That’s above the consensus for 0.1%. Retail less autos rose 0.7%. Less autos and gas, retail also rose 0.7%.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
The first piece of data out of the factory sector this morning isn’t good, with the Empire State index at 0.55 for July. That’s about as close as you can come without being in the negative. New orders, backlogs, employment, and the workweek are all down. In June, the reading was showing some strength at 6.01. The factory sector has been having a bumpy ride for a while now and the trend doesn’t seem to be stopping.
Industrial Production
The industrial production report is showing a month over month change of 0.6% in June. That’s a solid reading that was spurred on by vehicle sales. manufacturing is up 0.4%, month over month, and the capacity utilization rate is at 75.4%.
Fedspeak
- San Francisco Fed President John Williams will speak today at 1:00 PM.
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is set to talk today at 1:15 PM.
Miscellanea:
- Donald Trump announced this morning that Governor Mike Pence will be his running mate in the 2016 Presidential election.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Labor Market Conditions Index
- Treasury auctions
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
- Treasury auctions
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Treasury auctions
- Beige Book
- Fedspeak
Thursday:
- Weekly Jobless Claims
- Producer Price Index – Final Demand
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Consumer Price Index
- Retail Sales
- Empire State Manufacturing Survey
- Industrial Production
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/29IKaoy
No comments:
Post a Comment