Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
It’s a slow week, with very little economic data out. We’re in the so-called “black-out” stage where the Federal Reserve Officials go into hiding before their meeting next week. Usually, this builds up the tension and excitement, but everyone already knows that a rate hike is off the table.
Mortgage rates moved higher toward the end of last week and they’re currently sitting at about the same levels. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is 1.57%. That’s well above where it was this time last week but still very low, historically speaking. At the start of the year, the yield was around 2.25%. We’re nowhere near approaching that number right now, and I doubt we will we anytime soon.
Mortgage rates usually follow wherever the 10-year yield goes, as the end of last week showed. If nothing really happens this week (which is what I expect), then we should be seeing mortgage rates significantly higher than where they were in last week’s Freddie Mac Private Mortgage Market Survey.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Fed Fund futures
The Fed Fund futures continue to have little faith in a 2016 rate hike. It’s true that the odds are getting better, but they are still not very good. December is sitting at about a 50/50 chance of a rate increase. If I were a betting man, I would say wager that it doesn’t happen. We have a long way to go before we get to December, including a Presidential Election. Anything could happen, but I’m leaning towards zero rate hikes in 2016.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates aren’t quite as low as they were a few weeks ago, but they’re still low. If you’re on the hunt for a new house or want to refinance your current mortgage, now is a great time to do it.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Housing starts
Housing starts for June came in at 1.189 million. That’s up 4.8% from the prior reading of 1.135 million. Housing permits for June are at 1.153 million. That’s 1.5% higher from the last reading of 1.136 million.
Miscellanea:
- It’s day two of the Republican National Convention. Nothing too crazy happened on Day One unless you count Melania Trump’s speech that was strangely similar to Michelle Obama’s in 2008. The Donald’s coronation continues today, with the theme of “Make America Work Again.”
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Treasury auctions
Tuesday:
- Housing starts
Wednesday:
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey
- FHFA House Price Index
- Existing Home Sales
Friday:
- PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2aqJy6X
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