Happy Friday, and welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
The Fed didn’t raise rates this week, but their statement did talk about a strengthening economy and the potential to raise rates in the near-term. The markets adjusted slightly to these hawkish overtones and the Fed Fund futures priced in a greater chance of a 2016 rate hike. Now, with second-quarter GDP coming in at a disappointing 1.2%, the gears have shifted and we’re back to a slowing economy with little chance of a 2016 rate hike. Such are the ways of the market. Yesterday, September and November both had a 25% chance of a rate hike; now, they both have a 12% chance. December (which has long been the only real candidate for a 2016 rate hike) got bumped down from 41.6% yesterday to 33.7% today.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
As for mortgage rates, poor economic data is almost always going to push rates lower, which is what we’re seeing right now. The U.S. 10-year yield–the best measure of where mortgage rates are heading–is back under 1.50%. Next week there is a solid amount of economic data out, meaning that there will be ample opportunity for the economy to assert itself. Of course, one week from today we will get arguably the biggest market moving report–the monthly employment situation. That will be the best chance to prop up December for a rate hike.
Freddie Mac PMMS has rates edging upward
On Thursday, we got the Freddie Mac Private Mortgage Market Survey. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage went up three basis points to 3.48% (0.5 points); the average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage ticked up three basis points to 2.78% (0.5 points); and the average rate on a 5-year ARM remained at it’s previous mark of 2.78% (0.5 points).
As always, it’s worth checking in with Sean Becketti, the chief economist at Freddie Mac to see what he has to say about this week in mortgage rates:
“The 10-year Treasury yield remained flat this week in anticipation of the Fed’s July policy meeting. Mortgage rates, on the other hand, rose another 3 basis points to 3.48 percent. Nonetheless, home sales continue to benefit from the persistently low mortgage rates with June’s new home sales coming in at an annualized rate of 592,000 homes – its fastest pace since 2008.”
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates rose the slightest bit in the beginning of the week, but after today’s GDP release they are on the decline. My advice is simple: if you’re on the market for a new home or want to refinance into a lower rate, I think you’re better off acting sooner rather than later.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Second-Quarter GDP Disappoints
Second-quarter GDP came in very weak this morning at 1.2%, compared to expectations for 2.6%. However, there are some positive signs from the report, such as consumer spending at 4.2%, slowing inventory, and strong net exports. Ultimately, though, the report is disappointing, especially with first-quarter GDP being revised 3-tenths lower to 0.8%.
Chicago PMI at 55.8
The Chicago PMI for July came in at 55.8 this morning. That’s slightly down from June’s reading of 56.8, but it is above the consensus for 54.0. Employment and inventories are both up.
Consumer Sentiment remains about the same
Consumer sentiment or July is at 90.0, according to data from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey Center report. That’s a touch up from the prior reading of 89.5.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
Tuesday:
- S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- New Home Sales
- Consumer Confidence
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Wednesday:
- Durable Goods Orders
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- FOMC Announcement
Thursday:
- International Trade in Goods
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
- KC Fed Manufacturing Index
Friday:
- GDP
- Chicago PMI
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2aBNg1u
No comments:
Post a Comment