Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
The FOMC meeting begins today. Mortgage rates have been holding steady for about a week or so now, and there is little reason to believe that will change today. The Federal Reserve always has the power to sway the markets, and depending on what kind of statement they issue tomorrow, mortgage rates could fall or rise.
Financial market participants are yearning for some kind of hint on where monetary policy is headed. With the markets calming down after the initial Brexit panic, it’s possible that the Fed will try to set the state for a rate hike at the end of 2016. Then again, one could just as easily imagine that they will continue to march down the cautious path and put off any clear signals until their next meeting in September.
At any rate, we will find out tomorrow when they release their statement at 2:00 PM. To make matter more interesting, this is a meeting with no post-statement press conference with Fed Char Janet Yellen. The statement is all we get.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Fed Fund futures
The Fed Fund futures are still showing that December is the only hope for a 2016 rake hike. Right now, it has the odds of a quarter-point adjustment in December at 44.0%. The odds of a half-point adjustment are at 10.7%.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates are still very low. There is some risk that they will rise after the Fed’s statement tomorrow, but it’s still a great time to purchase a home or refinance your current mortgage.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
The Case-Shiller 20-city index dropped by 0.1% in May, missing expectations of a 0.4% gain. On top of that, the April number was revised from 0.5% to -0.2%. The data clearly points to a softening in home prices.
New Home Sales
Home prices might not be rising but home sales are doing well in 2016. For June, new home sales came in at 592,000, which is 30,000 above the consensus. That’s a 25% increase from last June.
Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence for July is strong, coming in at 97.3. That’s above the consensus for 96.0.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
The Richmond Fed index came in at a 10 this morning. That’s a complete reversal from the -10 that was posted in June.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
Tuesday:
- S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- New Home Sales
- Consumer Confidence
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Wednesday:
- Durable Goods Orders
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- FOMC Announcement
Thursday:
- International Trade in Goods
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
- KC Fed Manufacturing Index
Friday:
- GDP
- Chicago PMI
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2a47z2M
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