Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Mortgage rates have basically been inching up all week, and that trend is continuing today. The most significant piece of data of this week–the PIC report–was released this morning. That report contains the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE index. Today’s report was significant in that for the first time in almost five years the PCE index came in over the Fed’s target of 2.0%, at 2.1%.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Mar. 31, 2017).A handful of Fed officials have stated during recent speaking engagements that upwards of three or four more rate increases could happen in 2017, especially if inflation starts to take off. It’s too early to tell if today’s report is the start of continued upward pressure on inflation or just a one off event, but there’s no doubt investors are beginning to take seriously the notion of several more rate increases this year.
Typically, this sort of data would send Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher, but an early interview TV interview from New York Fed President William Dudley is keeping rate hike expectations at bay. He quickly shot down the fact that inflation is above the Fed’s target, choosing to look at the core PCE reading which is at 1.8%. To Dudley, “Inflation is still a little bit below our target, if you look at the underlying pace of inflation.” He went on to say that:
“That tells you there is not this huge rush that we have to tighten monetary policy quickly. The economy is not overheating… A couple more hikes this year seems reasonable. If the economy is a little bit stronger than we expect, we could do a little more, and if it’s weaker than we expect, we could do a little less.”
Dudley is a voting member of the FOMC and is seen as closely reflecting the views of Fed chair Janet Yellen. Despite many Fed officials seemingly leaning on the hawkish side of things, with Dudley and (possibly) Yellen only expecting two more rate hikes, most investors aren’t willing to commit to a quicker rate hike pace just yet. The conversation is certainly picking up and getting more interesting, though.
Freddie Mac PMMS has mortgage rates down
Mortgage rates moved lower this week in the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
- The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell nine basis points to 4.14% (0.5 points).
- The average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage slipped six basis points to 3.39% (0.4 points).
- The average rate on a 5-year adjustable rate mortgage sunk six basis points to 3.18% (0.4 points).
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates moved up a bit this week, but are still not far off from 2017 lows. The fact that the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate fell nine basis points last week means that there is a decent hole to climb out of to get back up there. Anyone looking to refinance their current mortgage or purchase a new home is dealing with a fairly accommodating mortgage market.
You can check out today’s rates here, or if you’d rather talk to a loan officer on the phone our lines are open all day. It only takes a quick conversation to find out if you could be saving money on a refinance, or what kind of loan would be best for your purchase.
Today’s economic data:
Personal Income and Outlays
The big news in the PIC report for February is the PCE price index coming in at 2.1%. That’s the Fed’s favorite inflation reading and it’s the first time in almost five years that it’s come in over the Fed’s target of 2.0%.
Also noteworthy from the report is consumer spending rising a meager 0.1%, despite incomes rising by 0.4%.
Chicago PMI
The Chicago PMI came in slightly over the consensus of 57.0 at 57.7. With production and new orders up, it could mean good things to come for the economy.
Consumer Sentiment
Consumer sentiment for March came down a little from it’s previous reading of 97.6, settling in at 96.9. It’s possible that the health care flop last week played into the decline of this reading.
Fedspeak
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari at 10am
- St. Louis Fed President James Bullard at 10:30am
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- International Trade in Goods
- S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
- Consumer Confidence
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
- State Street Investor Confidence Index
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- Fedspeak
- Pending Home Sales Index
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- GDP
- Jobless Claims
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
- Chicago PMI
- Consumer Sentiment
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2mVTgHP
No comments:
Post a Comment