Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Markets dealing with repercussions from health care flop
The U.S. stock market is taking a hit this morning as financial market participants are coming to terms with a Trump administration that failed to get a key health care bill to a House vote last Friday. A key source of fuel for the “Trump Rally” had been investor optimism about his pro-growth plans, but the health care flop is being taken as a warning sign that the new administration won’t be able to implement change as quickly as they’d expected.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Mar. 27, 2017).Trump stated shortly after the health care bill was pulled that he’ll be switching directions and going after tax reform. On Friday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that tax reform is not quite as complicated as health care, and that he thinks they can get something implemented by the end of August. At this point, investors need more than promises to bolster their belief that change is coming.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note sunk five basis points this morning to 2.35%–a fresh one-month low. Historically, mortgage rates trail closely behind the 10-year yield. That relationship has been somewhat shaky the past couple months, but the past few weeks they’ve been in tandem. That means mortgage rates are starting out the week on the decline, and are on track to drop for the second straight week.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Mar. 27, 2017).It will be interesting to see if anything can jolt investors out of their new found pessimism this week. Potential threats include several speaking engagements from Federal Reserve officials, and various economic reports, such as the third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP. Currently, though, it’s looking like low rates will win out the week.
Fed officials last week really failed to move the needle at all in terms of rate hike expectations, so unless they all really come out swinging, it’s doubtful that they will be able to overcome the current lull in the markets. Fourth-quarter GDP is expected to be revised one tenth higher up to 2.0%. Is that enough to push markets higher? It’s hard to say for sure, but it doesn’t seem likely.
Fed Fund Futures
June is still the next most likely candidate for a rate hike according to the CME Group’s Fed Fund futures, although the probability is down slightly (46% chance from 51% early Friday) from where it was pre-health care bill fail. It’s the first time in several weeks that June has been below 50%. Fed officials last week continued to signal for at least two more rates increases in 2017. How they adjust to the healthcare bill’s failure–if they even mention it at all in their remarks this week–will be something to keep an eye on.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates are on track for another weekly decline, which is good news for borrowers gearing up for the spring home buying season. With rates heading back down to 2017 lows, right now is a great time for anyone to lock in a rate on a refinance or purchase.
Today’s economic data:
Fedspeak
- Chicago Fed President Charles Evans at 1:15pm
- Dallas Fed President Dennis Kaplan at 6:30pm
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- International Trade in Goods
- S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
- Consumer Confidence
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
- State Street Investor Confidence Index
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- Fedspeak
- Pending Home Sales Index
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- GDP
- Jobless Claims
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
- Chicago PMI
- Consumer Sentiment
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2mIAEuF
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