Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Mortgage rates not too far from 2017 lows
There have been up and down moments this week, but mortgage rates have mostly stayed flat. There was a spike on Tuesday afternoon after the release of the stellar consumer confidence report, but rates have since improved a bit from that high point.
All week long we’ve kind of been marching steadily toward the PIC report tomorrow morning. In that report, we’ll get the latest reading for the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation. Financial market participants always pay close attention to this report, and there will no doubt be market trading based on its outcome.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Mar. 30, 2017).Anything at or above the Fed’s target of 2.0% should send Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher, as it would mean a greater likelihood that the Fed will pick up the pace of their rate hike path. On the other hand, if that reading comes in below 2.0%, we could see rates improve. Right now economists are predicting a reading of 1.7%. The PIC data will get released at 8:30am tomorrow morning.
Freddie Mac PMMS has mortgage rates down
Mortgage rates fell this week in the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
- The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped nine basis points to 4.14% (0.5 points).
- The average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage sunk six basis points to 3.39% (0.4 points).
- The average rate on a 5-year adjustable rate mortgage fell six basis points to 3.18% (0.4 points).
Here is what chief economist at Freddie Mac Sean Becketti had to say:
“The 10-year Treasury yield remained relatively flat this week. The 30-year mortgage rate fell 9 basis points to 4.14 percent, another significant week-over-week decline. Despite recent mortgage rate fluctuation, new home sales far exceeded expectations in February and jumped 6.1 percent to an annualized rate of 592,000.”
Word from the Fed
San Francisco Fed President John Williams made the claim yesterday that the U.S. economy is fully recovered from the financial crisis. He said, “The data have spoken, and the message is clear: We’ve largely attained the hard-sought recovery we’ve been after for the past nine years.” Williams stated that the Fed could raise rates up to four more times in 2017, but that the the greatest opportunity for economic growth will come from decisions made by Congress, the Trump Administration and the business sector.
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren went even further yesterday, saying that four more rate hikes in 2017 should be the Fed’s “default position.” Here it is in his own words:
“The perception seems to be that the outcome of each FOMC meeting depends on nuances of incoming data, with the base case being no change in rates… My own view is that an increase at every other FOMC meeting over the course of this year could and should be the committee’s default.”
Rosengren is not a voting member of the FOMC this year.
What does this mean for me?
At 4.14%, the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is only five basis points above its lowest reading of 2017 in the Freddie Mac PMMS. That means that right now is a great time for anyone looking to lock in a rate on a purchase or refinance. All it takes is a quick call to one of our loan officers to get started.
Today’s economic data:
GDP at 2.1%
The third estimate of fourth quarter GDP came in this morning at 2.1%. That’s two tenths up from the prior reading and one tenth above what economists had expected. An increase in consumer spending helped push things higher. The GDP price index also rose one tenth up to 2.1%.
Jobless Claims
Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell 3,000 to 258,000 for the week of 3/25/17. While a decline is good, it’s still 11,000 above the mark economists had expected. The four-week moving average is now at 254,250.
Fedspeak
- Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester at 9:45am
- Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan at 11:00am
- San Francisco Fed President John Williams at 11:15am
- New York Fed President at 4:30pm
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- International Trade in Goods
- S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
- Consumer Confidence
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
- State Street Investor Confidence Index
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- Fedspeak
- Pending Home Sales Index
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- GDP
- Jobless Claims
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
- Chicago PMI
- Consumer Sentiment
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2nzDVd7
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