Welcome to the Total Mortgage Current Mortgage Rates Blog. There’s a decent bit of economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Where are mortgage rates going?
All eyes on the Fed
It’s a big day for mortgage rates. The FOMC ends their two day meeting today and if everyone goes to plan, they will increase the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 0.75%-1.00%. Not much is happening right now, as financial market participants are waiting to hear from the Fed at 2:00pm before they make any moves. That’s fairly typical for the markets ahead of a monetary policy decision, and has been the trend for the past several days.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Mar. 15, 2017).This meeting is slightly different from most in that there isn’t much debate about what the Fed will do (CME Group’s Fed Fund futures shows a 95.2% chance of a rate hike). Instead, the speculation is concerned with what type of language the Fed will use to describe the U.S. economy, and if there will be any overt indicators of a change in the pace of the rate hike path. There’s been a lot of talk recently about the potential for an updated dot-plot that shows a more aggressive approach toward tightening.
Some are saying that 2018 and 2019 will now be projected to have four rate hikes each. Whatever the case is with the written statement and the dot-plot, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will have the opportunity to answer any remaining questions with reporters for about an hour at 2:30pm. Of course, Yellen often answers questions with vague fedspeak that leaves reporters and onlookers left to guess the true meaning of her response. At any event, it should be an interesting day, and there is certainly the chance that mortgage rates will finish the day off of their current marks.
What does this mean for me?
Anyone on the market for a purchase or refinance should keep an eye on the Fed today. There is a definite possibility that rates will sway in one direction or another. If they take a dip down, it could be a good opportunity for borrowers to lock in a rate.
Today’s economic data:
Consumer Price Index
Consumer prices rose month over month in February by 0.1%. That brings them up to 2.7%, year over year. CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% month over month, making it 2.2% year over year.
Retail Sales
Retail sales rose 0.1% month over month in February. Retail sales less autos rose 0.2%, while retail sales less auto and gas rose 0.2%. It’s not a great report, but it does keep the ball rolling forward.
Empire State Mfg
The empire state manufacturing index came in at 16.4 for March. That’s down from the previous reading of 18.7, but still above the consensus for 15.4. It’s a strong report that points toward increasingly inflationary conditions in the factory sector.
Housing Market Index
The housing market index for March is at 71. That’s 5 points above the consensus, and 6 points above the prior reading.
EIA Petroleum Status Report
For the week of 3/10:
- Crude oil: -0.2 M barrels
- Gasoline: -3.1 M barrels
- Distillates: -4.2 M barrels
FOMC Meeting Ends/Yellen Press Conference
The Fed will release a written statement at 2:00pm and there will be a Janet Yellen press conference around 2:30pm.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- New Atlanta Fed President
Tuesday:
- FOMC Meeting Begins
- PPI-FD
Wednesday:
- Consumer Price Index
- Retail Sales
- Empire State Mfg
- Housing Market Index
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- FOMC Meeting Ends/Yellen Press Conference
Thursday:
- Housing Starts
- Jobless Claims
- Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey
Friday:
- Industrial Production
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2msNhG7
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