Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Freddie Mac PMMS has rates higher
Every week the folks over at Freddie Mac collect data from a variety of lenders across the nation for their Private Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS). That report gets released at 10am every Thursday, and is one of the best snapshots of the mortgage rate environment that we have the privilege of viewing. For the past 11 weeks, mortgage rates haven’t been doing a whole lot, and have stayed within the range of 3.41%-3.48%. Today, for the first time in nearly three months, mortgage rates are outside of that range.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now 3.50% (0.5 points); the average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage is 2.77% (0.5 points); and the average rate on a 5-year ARM is 2.82% (0.4 points).
With the yield on the 10-year U.S. treasury note climbing 17 basis points up to 1.73% since last week, the rise in mortgage rates wasn’t surprising. The next big market mover is the FOMC meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday. Until then, I don’t expect much to change.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Fed Fund Futures
The Fed Fund futures is back to it’s old ways. September is firmly off the table (as I’ve been saying for the past several months) at 12.0%, and November also has very low odds at 19.0%. December, which has long been the only serious contender for a rate hike sits with about a 45% chance. At any event, these odds will most likely change when word comes out of the Fed on Wednesday.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates moved higher but are still, historically speaking, at very low levels. Depending on what the Fed says on Wednesday, mortgage rates could rise or fall. Everyone’s situation is different, but I think there are still plenty of opportunities for borrowers at the moment.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Jobless Claims
Jobless claims for the week of 9/10 came in at 260,000 . That’s below the consensus for 265,000, but the slightest bit higher than last week’s reading of 259,000. The 4-week moving average is little changed at 260,750. Overall, it’s a good sign for the September jobs report.
PPI-FD
The PPI-FD remained unchanged on the month and the year in August. While it didn’t rise, it also didn’t fall, which is good news considering last month’s 0.4% plunge.
Retail Sales
Retail sales declined by 0.3% in August. Retail sales less autos they fell 0.1%. Less autos and gas also came in at -0.1%.
Philly Fed Outlook
The Philly Fed business outlook for September came in at 12.8. That’s over 10 points higher than the consensus for 2.0, and well above the prior reading of 2.0.
Industrial Production
Industrial production is in the negative for August. Month over month, production and manufacturing both declined by 0.4%. That puts the capacity utilization rate at 75.5%.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- Nothing
Wednesday:
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- PPI-FD
- Retail Sales
- Philly Fed Outlook
- Industrial Production
Friday:
- Consumer Price Index
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2cy9dMm
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