Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
“The waiting is the hardest part.” -Tom Petty
Tom sure got that one right. It’s been over a week now since we’ve heard from the Fed, and we’ll have to wait another 24 hours until Janet Yellen will speak at her post FOMC meeting press conference. The discussion does begin today, as the FOMC meets at the Eccles Building for the sixth time this year. No one expects them to increase the federal funds rate, but there is the possibility for fed officials to prime the markets for a rate hike in December. I say December because there is zero chance that the Fed will raise rates in November, less than a week before the presidential election. We know from recent fedspeak that there are officials on both sides of the debate. What side Janet Yellen will lean towards is still uncertain. The action begins tomorrow at 2:00pm with the release of the written statement, and then the Yellen presser at 2:30pm.
Interestingly, the Bank of Japan also meets tomorrow. In contrast to the situation at home, there is much uncertainty about what the BOJ will decide to do. They’ve said that they are thoroughly evaluating their current quantitative easing and negative interest rate policies, but no one really knows what that means or how it will affect future policy decisions. They could dig deeper into negative rates or even expand their QE programs–it’s all up in the air.
All of the major U.S. market indexes are up this morning. The yield on the 10-year U.S. treasury note is 1.67%. That’s down about 4 basis points from yesterday’s close. An unfavorable housing starts report has pushed that yield down. That’s good news for mortgage rates, as the 10-year yield is the best indicator of where rates are headed. Still, tomorrow’s Fed statement and subsequent press conference remain the biggest threat toward mortgage rates this week.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates are higher than they’ve been in months, but in the grand scheme of things are still incredibly low. The 30-year fixed is hovering around 3.50%. This time last year it was at 3.90%. There’s no denying that right now is a great time for borrowers to lock in a low rate on a purchase or refinance.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
FOMC meeting begins
The FOMC meeting kicks off today. From our position, all of the action takes place tomorrow when the meeting concludes.
Housing starts are down
Housing starts and permits took a slight stumble in August. Starts fell from 1.211 million to 1.142 million. Permits dropped from 1.152 million to 1.139 million.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Nothing
Tuesday:
- FOMC Meeting Begins
- Housing Starts
Wednesday:
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- FOMC Meeting Concludes
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- Existing Home Sales
Friday:
- PMI Manufacturing Index
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2d1Y8GP
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