Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Last Fedspeak before the blackout
With speaking engagements from three Fed officials, yesterday had a lot of potential. Surprisingly, very little happened.
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart was first up on the agenda, but he by and large steered clear of any talk about rate hikes. The only comment he made was that the data over the past few weeks “warrants serious discussion of a policy rate increase.” He refused to say anything more specific due to concerns over the market’s sensitivity to fedspeak. Financial market participants were anxiously waiting to see if September would get put back on the table, but they wouldn’t get it from Lockhart.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Fed Governor Lael Brainard was no better. Her comments eased any remaining fears that the Fed might raise rates next week. The most telling phrase came when she said, “Today’s new normal counsels prudence in the removal of policy accommodation.” She’s still concerned that the labor market is not at full strength yet, meaning that”the case to tighten policy preemptively is less compelling.”
Brainard is one of the Fed’s most devoted doves, so the comments aren’t that surprising. That fact, however, made the lead up to her talk all the more nerve-wracking. The theory went that a Fed dove was going to come out and talk about potentially raising rates next week. Had that happened, the markets would have gone bananas. In the end, though, it was pure speculation.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari spoke to CNBC’s “Squawk Box”, in what was a fairly uneventful interview. He said casually, “My view is there doesn’t seem to be huge urgency to do anything.” He also took the chance to rebuke Donald Trump’s comments that Janet Yellen is beholden to Obama, stating that “Politics simply does not come up” in Fed meetings. While politics might not specifically get talked about around the conference room in the Eccles Building, everyone knows that Janet Yellen doesn’t want to take any huge risks with a presidential election right around the corner.
With one week to go until the FOMC meeting begins, we’ve now entered the Fed Blackout Stage. That means no communication until the meeting’s conclusion next Wednesday.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Fed Fund Futures
When it was all said and done, the Fed Fund futures hadn’t moved much yesterday. September finished up with a 15.0% chance of a rate hike, which is where it remains today. November has about a 20% chance, and December has slightly more than a 50% chance.
Mortgage rates remain unchanged
There was a chance that all the fedspeak would push mortgage rates higher, but it didn’t happen. Rates basically didn’t move from their post bond-sell off position after last Friday. Today and tomorrow are slow days, economic data wise, but Thursday has the potential to move the markets.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates are a decent bit higher than where they were last week, but they are certainly still very low from a historical perspective. I think there is a chance that rates drop down over the next week or so, and think it might be prudent to take your time with any decisions.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
There is no significant economic data out today.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- Nothing
Wednesday:
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- PPI-FD
- Retail Sales
- Industrial Production
Friday:
- Consumer Price Index
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2cCV1Ff
No comments:
Post a Comment