Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Freddie Mac PMMS has rates right above 2016 lows
Every Thursday morning at 10am the folks over at Freddie Mac grace the mortgage rate world with their Private Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS). For the second week in a row, mortgage rates were on the decline, and this time the drop puts them a hair away from 2016 lows.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell six basis points to 3.42% (0.5 points); the average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rate sunk 4 basis points (0.5 points); while the average rate on the 5-year ARM was the outlier, ticking up one basis point to 2.81% (0.4 points). The 2016 record low for the 30-year fixed rate is 3.41%, which took place back in July a few weeks after the Brexit vote.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Data for the report is collected early on in the week, so it won’t factor in the modest rise we’re seeing this morning. The yield on the U.S. 10-year treasury yield (long held as the best market indicator of where rates are headed) is up one basis point from where it closed yesterday.
Here is what Chief Economist at Freddie Mac had to say about mortgage rates this week:
“Investors flocked to the safety of government bonds causing the 10-year Treasury yield to continue its descent following the FOMC’s decision to leave rates unchanged. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage responded by dropping 6 basis points before landing at 3.42 percent–a ten-week low. The course of the economy is uncertain, yet consumers continue to be a bright spot. The September consumer confidence index is up 3 percent to 104.1, exceeding forecasts and reaching a new cycle high.”
What does this mean for me?
It’s a great time to act
Mortgage rates are just one basis point from 2016 lows and only ten basis points from the all-time record low. That means that right now is an excellent time to refinance your current mortgage or lock in a low rate for years to come on a purchase. It’s very hard to judge what will happen next week, which is why I recommend striking now while the iron is hot.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
GDP
The third estimate for second quarter GDP is up three tenths from the prior estimate, putting GDP at 1.4%. While that might have been an improvement from the last estimate, it still points toward a stunted economy in the first half of the year. Fed projections are expecting growth in the second half of the year to pull 2016 GDP up to 1.8%.
International Trade
- The U.S. trade deficit is at 68.4 billion for August. Exports rose 0.7%, and imports rose 0.3%.
Jobless Claims
Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits came in at 254,000 for the week of 9/24. That’s 2,000 higher than the previous week, but still very low. We’re quickly approaching another monthly jobs report (next Friday), and right now it seems as though it will be a strong one.
Fedspeak
We’re treated to another jam-packed Fedspeak day, as six different Fed officials have speaking engagements.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- New Home Sales
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- S&P Case-Shiller HPI
- Consumer Confidence
- Fedpeak
Wednesday:
- Durable Goods
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Fedspeak
Thursday:
- GDP
- International Trade
- Jobless Claims
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2doKx7J
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