Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note began to climb yesterday around noon and ultimately made it all the way up to 1.85 percent. Today the yield is a trading a few basis points higher at 1.87 percent. The Wednesday spike was the biggest in nearly two months and was spurred on by rallies in both the oil and stock markets.
As we’ve entered the blackout period before the Federal Reserve meeting next week, bond markets have little to go on and are therefore more susceptible to being influenced by asset markets. With crude oil rising to over $43 dollars a barrel investors shifted away from the safety of government bonds to the more risky oil and equity markets. Mortgage rates usually follow the lead of the 10-year yield so I expect mortgage rates to rise next week if the present trend persists.
Don’t wait for rates to rise. Start your mortgage process now.
The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) came out this morning and it has mortgage rates mixed this week. The average rate for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is the only rate that rose this week, up to 3.59 percent (0.6 points) from 3.58 percent (0.5 percent) last week. The average rate for the 15-year fixed rate mortgage fell one basis point to 2.85 percent (0.5 points), and the average rate on the 5-year ARM slipped 3 basis points to 2.81 percent. Most of the data for the report is collected early in the week and therefore wouldn’t take into account yesterday’s Treasury yield spike.
What does this mean for me?
For the past couple of weeks, mortgage rates have been hanging around levels that are extremely accommodative to borrowers. It seems like next they’re moving higher as the week wraps up but there’s no reason to freak out if you’re on the hunt for a house. I don’t foresee the spike to jump much higher than where it is right now; however, with rates rising, I think it’s best to refinance your current mortgage or purchase a home sooner rather than later.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Shows Contraction
It’s back into the negative for the Philly Fed business outlook survey with a reading of -1.6 in April. Backlog order and shipments both fell significantly from their March levels. Expectations were for a reading of 9.0, so the data is definitely disappointing. The manufacturing sector has been hit-or-miss lately. Tomorrow’s PMI flash will be its next pulse check.
Weekly Jobless Claims are Down
More good news from the labor market came out today, as applications for unemployment benefits fell 6,000 this week to 247,000. The four-week average dropped 4,500 to 260,500. With time ticking onward and the end of the month approaching, we’re that much closer to the April jobs report. Given the current data, it seems that we could be in for a strong report; however, the raw numbers don’t tell the whole story. We’ll have to wait and see what kind of jobs are being added to the economy in order to truly judge the strength of the labor market.
Don’t wait for rates to rise. Start your mortgage process now.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- Housing Starts
Wednesday:
- Existing Home Sales
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey
- Weekly Jobless Claims
Friday:
- PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/1TlaZz4
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