Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s a decent bit of economic data out today, but first, your mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
The Fed keeps rates on hold
The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting on monetary policy came to an end yesterday. Their written statement, which was the only form of communication this go around, had few changes from the March version. It was basically the usual talk about strength in the labor market, inflation still running below 2%, and being data dependent when considering future rate hikes. They nixed any talk of “global economic and financial developments” posing a risk, so it seems all eyes are on domestic issues at the moment.
The big question on everyone’s mind was if there would be any mention–even just the subtlest hint–about a June rate hike. Alas, there was not. Janet Yellen doesn’t seem to be in any hurry at all to raise rates. I think that surprised a lot of people who were expecting the Fed to signal to the markets that they should consider June a definite possibility.
Not that the markets would have totally bought that line but it still would have influenced the framing of future meetings such as September and December. With no mention of June, the probability of a rate hike at any of the remaining meetings has gone down, according to the Fed Fund futures. The chances are 15%, 33%, 49%, 53%, and 67% for the June, July, September, November, and December meetings, respectively. Of course, these numbers change all the time, and it’s certainly possible that we get some strong data and hawkish Fedspeak that puts June back on the table, but that’s not what’s happening right now.
Freddie Mac PMMS has rates up
The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) came out today, and it’s showing mortgage rates moving higher this week. The average rate on a 30-year fixed is 3.66% (0.6 points), the average rate on a 15-year fixed is 2.89% (0.6 points), and the average rate on a 5-year ARM is 2.86% (0.5 points).
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell after the statement was released. It’s currently trading around 1.86%. Mortgage rates usually follow the lead of the 10-year yield so we could see rates move lower next week.
Don’t wait for rates to rise. Start your mortgage process now.
What does this mean for me?
It means right now is still a great time for home buyers. If you’ve been thinking about purchasing a home or refinancing your current mortgage, I’d recommend acting sooner rather than later.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
GDP at slowest pace in two years
According to data from the Labor Department, U.S. gross domestic product has fallen to 0.5%. Expectations were for 0.7%. Cheap oil is one of the major culprits. Economists are hoping that the labor market will help the economy find its footing moving forward.
Weekly Jobless Claims are up
Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits went up this week to 257,000. That’s up 9,000 from last week’s revised reading. Overall, the report seems to point toward a strong labor market.
Don’t wait for rates to rise. Start your mortgage process now.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- New Home Sales
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
Tuesday:
- Durable Good Orders
- S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- Consumer Confidence
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Wednesday:
- International Trade
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Pending Home Sales
- Fed Statement
Thursday:
- GDP
- Weekly Jobless Claims
Friday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
- Employment Cost Index
- Chicago PMI
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/24mzgtS
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