Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
In a general sense, what I believe about the future of mortgage rates today is little changed from what I thought yesterday. I don’t foresee the Federal Reserve raising the Federal Funds rate anytime soon. The markets seem to agree with me as the Fed Fund futures still only has December with a greater than 50 percent chance of a rate hike at 58 percent.
Of course, just yesterday we had three Fed officials all championing the U.S. economy and calling for multiple monetary policy adjustments before 2016 comes to an end. San Francisco Fed President John Williams said, “I definitely see two or three rate hikes … as being reasonable.” He went on to talk about how what’s more important than when they hike, is that there is movement in the coming years down the path toward normalization.
It’s always interesting when someone disagrees with the consensus and throws out a proposal that makes you scratch your head. Noted hawk and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker came out yesterday and said that he thinks that there should still be four rate hikes in 2016. He basically made the claim that the concerns the Fed had in the beginning of the year have been overblown and that since the U.S. economy is performing better we should resume the path that was set out at the start of 2016. Despite what Mr. Lacker believes, and even what the validity of his claims are, I would bet a lot of money that four rate hikes do not transpire.
Philly Fed Patrick Harker also echoed a similar sentiment about the U.S. economy persevering through the tough first-quarter, stating that the U.S. economy’s “fundamentals” are strong. He didn’t state how many hikes he feels should take place in 2016 but he does support them so long as the economy continues to strengthen.
If we look at the U.S. 10-year yield today, it’s trading around 1.79%, which is slightly higher than where it has been the past week or so, but not enough to signal a huge rise in mortgage rates. The Freddie Mac PMMS comes out tomorrow and I expect mortgage rates might bump up a few basis points, but not much.
Don’t wait for rates to rise. Start your mortgage process now.
What does this mean for me?
The mortgage ratometer is still all the way to the left today, meaning that rates are at very accommodative levels right now. I think that the prudent decision if you are thinking of refinancing or putting in an offer on a home, is to do it sooner rather than later.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Retail sales are down
Data out from the Commerce Department this morning shows that retail sales fell 0.3 percent in March. That’s disappointing considering that the consensus was for a 0.1 percent increase. Auto sales helped bring the reading down, as they fell 2.1 percent in March. Higher gasoline prices were expected to push retail sales up, and they did rise by a solid 0.9 percent, but in the end that wasn’t enough to keep sales from falling.
Producer price index falls
The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued their latest Producer Price Index reading today and it’s showing a month-over-month change of -0.1 percent. That’s below the expectations for a 0.3 percent gain.
EIA petroleum status report
Crude oil is coming in at a weekly change of 6.6 M barrels today. Gasoline has a weekly changed of -4.2 M barrels. Distillates has a weekly change of 0.5 M barrels.
Treasury auctions
A 10-year note auction will take place today at 1:00 PM.
Beige book
Oh, the beige book. It’s always interesting to see what kind of anecdotal evidence the Federal Reserve will come out with in the beige book, which is released by a differed Fed district bank two weeks before the next meeting on monetary policy. Its ostensible purpose is to give a glimpse into economic conditions, and supposedly it’s used at FOMC meetings as an arguing point. There will most likely be anecdotes on price inflation, wage growth, consumer spending and the manufacturing sectors. The report is to be released today at 2:00 PM.
Don’t wait for rates to rise. Start your mortgage process now.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Treasury auctions
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- Treasury auctions
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- Retail Sales
- Producer Price Index – Final Demand
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Treasury auctions
- Beige Book
Thursday:
- Consumer Price Index
- Weekly Jobless Claims
- Treasury auctions
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Empire State Manufacturing Survey
- Industrial Production
- Consumer Sentiment
- Fedspeak
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/1VlXp1x
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