Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Rates are lowest since May 2013
The first Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) since the Brexit is out and it’s showing, as predicted, that rates sunk to new 2016 lows. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now at 3.48% (0.5 points); the average rate on a 15-year fixed rate is 2.78% (0.4 points); and the average rate on a 5-year ARM is 2.70% (0.5 points). Mortgage rates haven’t been this low since May 2013, and the 30-year fixed is only 17 basis points above the all-time low of 3.31%.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
We’re still dealing with the uncertainty brought on by last week’s Brexit vote. There’s really no telling when the tide will turn and rates will begin to climb out from their current basement. It’s going to take a string of positive data to rally the troops and give investors more faith in the equities market before any progress is made. Until then, we’re dealing with incredibly low rates.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
10-year yield yet to find its footing
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is currently trading at 1.48%. For the first time since the Brexit, it rose above 1.50%, getting as high as 1.52% earlier this morning, but has since retreated.
Fed Fund futures
Checking in on the Fed Fund futures has taken a bit of a different tone after the Brexit. Instead of looking at the near-term meetings, like July and September, we’re now left to stare out almost into next year for any hope of a rate hike. Even then, the futures don’t present us with a very persuasive picture. December now has a 19.9% chance of the Federal Funds rate being moved 25 basis points up from its current position. It doesn’t take a seasoned gambler to understand that those are poor odds.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates are at new 2016 lows. That’s good news for anyone looking to refinance or purchase a home. There’s really no telling how long rates will be down at these levels, so I would recommend you get it while the getting’s good.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims still low
The labor market continues to provide a degree of calm in an otherwise chaotic economy. Jobless claims for the week of 6/25 came in at 268,000, which is up 10,000 from the previous week, but still a fairly low number. The 4-week moving average is unchanged. The June employment report will be released next Friday, and could potentially be a strong one. A robust monthly employment report is the type of economic event that could catalyze financial market participants back into their pre-Brexit ways.
Chicago PMI jumps
The Chicago PMI jumped up to 56.8 in June. That’s a very solid reading, and much higher than the 50.5 that was expected. It’s the type of volatility that we’ve come to expect from the Chicago PMI.
Miscellanea:
- Boris Johnson, former London Mayor and prominent face for the Leave campaign, stated yesterday that he will not be putting himself into the mix of likely candidates for David Cameron’s successor as Prime Minister. The decision came as somewhat of a surprise.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- International Trade in Goods
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
Tuesday:
- GDP
- S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- Consumer Confidence
Wednesday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
- Janet Yellen speaks
- Pending Home Sales Index
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
- Chicago PMI
Friday:
- PMI Manufacturing Index
- ISM Manufacturing Index
- Construction Spending
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/29cGleg
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