Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Mortgage rates are still holding at very low levels. There’s a lot up in the air right now with the FOMC meeting today and tomorrow. There aren’t any expectations for the Fed to adjust the Federal Funds rates from its current position of 0.25%-0.5%, but it is an opportunity for Fed officials to offer their forward guidance on future policy decisions.
At the start of the year, they were telling us that 3-4 rate hikes would be appropriate. The economy then proceeded to take a downturn in the first quarter and rate hikes have been on hold since then. We’re at the point where it seems like there might only be one rate hike in December, if at all. That’s at least what financial markets are saying right now, with the Fed Fund futures showing December as the only meeting with a greater than 50% chance of a rate hike.
Janet Yellen spoke at the beginning of last week and she downplayed the May jobs report. I expect the Fed to take a similar, optimistic view of the economy with their statement. The best part of the meeting is always the press conference. All the regular Fed watchers will be there, and some of the questions force Janet Yellen to speak more clearly on matters that she wouldn’t normally have to.
Of course, she is incredibly adept at saying a lot without saying anything, so you really have to pay attention to pick out the important admissions and omissions. Given her dry and dull speaking style, that can be a tall task. I recommend you keep a large cup of coffee at hand. She takes the stage at 2:30 PM tomorrow.
U.S. 10-year Treasury Note
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is still down, floating around 1-year lows at 1.60%. We’ll see what happen tomorrow, but right now, this is good news for mortgage rates, which usually follow the lead of the 10-year yield. It’s entirely possible that we see new 2016 lows in this week’s Freddie Mac PMMS.
What does this mean for me?
Rates are still incredibly low. I’d say that falls under good news. With the Fed meeting concluding tomorrow, there’s really no way of being sure which way rates will head over the next 24 hours. If you’re thinking about refinancing or purchasing a home, the same play would be to lock in a rate right now. Then again, if you want to roll the dice, I can definitely conjure up a scenario where rates dip a little lower after the meeting.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
FOMC meeting begins
- The meeting kicks off today and concludes tomorrow afternoon with a statement at 2:00 PM and a press conference at 2:30 PM.
Retail Sales are strong
- According to the latest consumer spending report, retail sales went up 0.5% in May. That’s above the consensus for a 0.3% rise. Retail Sales less autos came in right in line with expectations at 0.4%, as did Less Autos & Gas at 0.3%. Overall, the report points toward strength for May consumer spending.
Import and Export Prices rise
- Import prices rose 1.4% in May, while export prices rose 1.1%. Both prices shot up a significant amount from the last reading. It’s possible that the report could be a sign of higher inflation to come. Year over year, both prices are still in the red. Import prices at -5.0%, and export prices at -4.5%.
Business Inventories are up
- Business inventories are at 0.1% in April. That’s down from the prior reading of 0.4%.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Nothing
Tuesday:
- FOMC Meeting Begins
- Retail Sales
- Import and Export Prices
- Business Inventories
Wednesday:
- PPI-FD
- Empire State Manufacturing
- Industrial Production
- EIA Petroleum Report
- FOMC Meeting Ends
Thursday:
- CPI
- Weekly Jobless Claims
Friday:
- Housing Starts
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/1XnmN8e
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